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|  Message 13219  |
|  Sean Dennis to All  |
|  3 Day Space Weather Forecast  |
|  19 Dec 25 00:19:02  |
 MSGID: 1:18/200@fidonet 669556bc PID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) CHRS: CP437 2 TZUTC: -0500 TID: MBSE-FIDO 1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Dec 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 19-Dec 21 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 19-Dec 21 2025 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec 21 00-03UT 3.00 2.67 1.67 03-06UT 3.00 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 2.67 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 1.67 1.67 1.67 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 1.33 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 19-Dec 21 2025 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 19-Dec 21 2025 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec 21 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 20 Dec. --- MBSE BBS v1.1.6 (Linux-x86_64) * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200) SEEN-BY: 1/110 18/200 105/81 106/201 128/187 129/14 305 153/7715 154/110 SEEN-BY: 218/700 226/30 227/114 229/110 112 134 200 206 300 307 312 SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512 291/111 292/854 SEEN-BY: 320/219 322/757 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 SEEN-BY: 5020/400 5075/35 PATH: 18/200 229/426 |
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