SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP11
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  March 11, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux both increased over the past
week. Average daily solar flux went from 92.9 to 96.8, and the average daily
sunspot number from 41.4 to 64.4. Geomagnetic
indicators increased, with the most activity on March 6 and 7.

On March 6-7 the planetary A index was 35 and 24.  According to 
paceweather.com this was caused by a CIR. On March 4 they wrote, "NOAA
forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 6th
when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's
magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow-moving solar
wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density
gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras."

Spaceweather.com also mentioned that the Spring Equinox (Sunday, March 20 at
0430 UTC) is a time for enhanced aurora activity. The weeks around equinoxes
(both Autumnal and Vernal) are a time of increased aurora borealis. 6 meter
operators will want to be alert.

On March 6 Spaceweather.com reported a G-2 Class geomagnetic storm. (Go to
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation and click on the Geomagnetic
Storms tab for details). G-2 signals a moderate geomagnetic storm, and
typically "HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has
been seen as low as New York and Idaho."

Predicted solar flux is 95 on March 11-13, 90 on March 14-17, 95 on March
18-20, 90 on March 21-23, and 95 on March 24-30. Solar flux then continues to
meander between 90 and 95 for the remained of the 45 day forecast.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10, on March 11-12, 8 on March 13-14, 5
on March 15, 30 and 24 on March 16-17, 25 on March 18-19, 12 on March 20, then
5 on March 21 through April 2, then 22, 10 and 8 on April 3-5 and 5 on April
6-7. The planetary A index then increases to 25 again on April 13-15.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH expects geomagnetic conditions to be quiet to unsettled
March 11-12, quiet to active March 13, active to disturbed on March 14-16
(although the March 15-16 period is less likely), quiet to active March 17,
mostly quiet March 18-19, quiet on March 20-21, mostly quiet March 22, quiet
again on March 23, mostly quiet March 24, quiet in March 25-27, quiet to
active March 28, quiet to unsettled March 29-30, mostly quiet March 31, quiet
on April 1-2, active to disturbed April 3-4, quiet to active April 5 and
mostly quiet April 6.

OK1HH expects increases in solar wind on March 14-17 and again on March 30 to
April 4, but the outlook for increased solar wind is less certain for March
30-31.

On March 8, Dr. Jon Jones, N0JK (editor, The World Above 50 MHz in QST) of
Lawrence, Kansas wrote:

"Did not expect a lot on 10 meters Sunday morning of the ARRL DX SSB contest
with solar flux around 100. But conditions were remarkable in eastern Kansas.

"Starting at 1707z with EI4KF, worked scads of Europeans. Many eastern
Europeans were loud, along with Africa. The best DX was FH/IK5ZUI and ES5Q.
5D3A and HB9AUS were 20 over S9. I was 'fixed mobile' on a hill top just west
of Lawrence, antenna a 1/4 wave whip for 10 meters with a MFJ tri-magnet mount
on the roof of the car."

KC0DEB, also in Kansas noted, "It was pretty neat to see how propagation moved
on 10 meters, from North Africa through Central and Eastern Europe to the
Baltics and back down again to Southern France and Spain. Not all signals were
strong, but the majority were Q5. 9A1A (Croatia) was one of the loudest ones I
heard here from EU on 10m though. I think it was Paul N4PN behind the mic,
pegging the S-meter at 9+40dB! Unbelievable!

"Around 1800z I noted aurora polar flutter on SK3W and ES5Q and considerable
QSB on many Europeans. HB9AUS was solid and very loud. There was a geomagnetic
storm in progress at this time, with the Kp peaking at 7."

On March 10, Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote:

"Well today was a great example of conditions falling well short of the solar
indices. All day long, the MUF on northern hemisphere paths were low
especially into EU and polar paths/northern EU were almost closed. I heard
nothing on 10M except for South America. There were 'no storms' present or
forecast all day from WWV and the solar flux was pretty steady at 95 down from
97 Wednesday. Other stations I worked agreed that conditions were poor as
well. 15 meters seemed completely closed to EU at 1815Z vs. 10 meters open
well at same time Sunday.

"I was not very active in the ARRL DX SSB contest last weekend on March 5 and
6, visiting Luray Caverns nearby with a friend on Saturday; it really is quite
a natural wonder.

"Friday evening sounded very good on all bands 15M working my way down to 75M
by 0245Z and QRT around 0320Z. JAs had good signals on 15M at the start with
one booming Alaskan, Hawaiians and South
Americans, then 20 was pretty well open to all of EU except Russia with very
loud signals from even the northern Caribbean down into SA. Some zone 18/19
Asiatic Russians and Alaska were loud as well. 40 was wide open to EU at 0130Z
and the United Arab Emirates were worked. EU signals were good on 75, but
precip static crashes were fairly high.

"Sunday was an excellent example of wonderful conditions that were actually
enhanced by an impending G3 level storm.  At 1513Z, I finally returned to the
radio to find 10 meters open well to EU, working two Swedish stations in about
the first 8 QSOs. I had a nice run of EU callers for about a half hour until
signals weakened from most of the continent except Ireland, Italy, and the
Balkans.  Most signals were quite good strength including calls from
Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Finland, Poland, Macedonia, and Kaliningrad.

"Following my run conditions turned quite strange on 10M with very weak
Spanish, German, and French stations obviously getting very loud signals from
the Midwest from OH to CO and even some W6/7s!

"Irish and some Brits/Welsh were still quite loud in the 1600Z hour. The K
index was 5 by 1800Z and 6 before the end of the contest. Around 1730Z,
conditions on 10 improved with loud signals from
Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Latvia as well as French and Italians. A St.
Petersburg station called me at 1811Z for first Russian of the day. Most
signals from northern EU did NOT have flutter, but some from SW EU did!

"After a break, returning at 1950Z signals were loud from Spain and Portugal
well into their evening and signals from even as close as Cuba were loud from
the south with only moderate signals from
Brazil/Argentina due to the high MUF to the south. Sunday was quite a
celebration of 10 meters, a last gasp probably until the next cycle. 15 was
excellent to all of EU as well."

Thanks Jeff for your report.

We haven't heard from Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ in Stillwater, Oklahoma in a
very long time. But he contributed this on March 7:

"10 meters still has a bit of life left in it but the vital signs are becoming
less frequent.

"I have taken to leaving an FM receiver on 29.6 MHZ and recording its output
to catch anything interesting from a discone antenna up about 50 feet.

"It does occasionally spring to life for very brief periods but nothing like
it was during past solar cycles or even in the Winter of 2014.

"I live in almost the exact center of the contiguous United States and Winter
F2 usually brings us the extreme northeast down to about New Jersey plus the
extreme Northwest from roughly Canada to Central California. One also hears
the extreme Southeast, mostly Florida and the Caribbean plus far southwest as
in Hawaii and the South Pacific.

"If the F2 really gets going, the skip zone gets a bit larger and we start
hearing further inland all around but this F2 season has been pretty spartan.

"The last two weeks have been a pretty good example, mostly dead except for
some openings on the low end of 10 meters and a couple of surprises.

"On Friday February 19, I began hearing a station in the first call district
calling CQ on 29.6 between 0900 and 1000 or so (local, 1500-1600 UTC) with
fades from nothing to almost full quieting and then it all died away.

"On Sunday March 6, I had forgotten the receiver was even on and then about
1600 Central time, I heard a brief burst of carrier which I first thought was
a local station until there was another burst of carrier which was on long
enough to fade a bit.

"I next heard an unidentified station which faded in and then out with what
sounded like possibly an Australian accent but I never got the call sign.

"Other partial QSOs were audible but not well enough to have participated and
then the pipeline opened up for listening with KH6RC on the big island of
Hawaii talking to a station in Santa Rosa, California which I could never hear
from here.

"The Hawaiian station ranged from almost full quieting to a closed squelch but
was what I would call a good copy.

"A few minutes later, it all vanished around 1700 Central time, which is UTC-6
(2300 UTC). This is pretty typical of 10 meters when conditions are marginal.

"F2 is only going to generally get worse as the solar activity declines but in
two more months, the Northern Hemisphere will be in Summer sporadic-E season
and that can open up at any time of the day or night with lots of skip in the
400-800 mile range and cover frequencies from 10 meters through 6 and
sometimes even 2 meters and 222-225 MHZ.

"They don't call it sporadic-E for nothing. The VHF bands can be as dead as a
doornail one minute and then booming with signals the next. Of course the next
minute after that it may be back to dead again so one must strike while the
iron is hot!"

Here we go again with another scary story on the infamous and truly
frightening nineteenth century Carrington Event, this time from regular
contributor David Moore.

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2938/1#.Vt9KXkkKgmY

NOAA says (on March 11, 2016) that there is a less than 1% chance of solar
flares today. There are sunspots all over the Earth-facing solar image, but
with solar activity remaining low, there seems to be little chance of any
aurora or geomagnetic activity.

Steve Shorey wrote:

"Steve G3ZPS here near London UK

"I'm sure all those on the air noticed that HF conditions improved
spectacularly over the weekend of 5th and 6th March - FoF2 over 9MHz in Europe
and 10m open to West Coast US from UK. I'm sure the contesters were happy!

"The Sunday improvement was just before the arrival of the predicted
Geomagnetic storm that triggered a G2 class storm and visible auroras. I have
noticed on more than occasion in the last year that HF (and sometimes up to 6
meters) propagation improves markedly just before the storms arrive.

"Of course the immediate aftermath is poor conditions for a few days (FoF2 way
down on Monday). Is there any known correlation between the sudden uptick in
HF conditions just prior to a geomagnetic disturbance - e.g. is the F2
intensely ionized by some mechanism just a few hours before?

"Regards from UK

Steve G3ZPS"

My response:

I suspect what was happening is outlined in this piece by K9LA:

http://k9la.us/Positive_Electron_Density_Enhancements_Due_to_Geo
agnetic_Field_Activity.pdf

The STORM model he references has moved to:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/storm-time-empirical-ionospheric-correction

I will Cc K9LA and see what he thinks.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt
://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and
planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at http
//bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .

Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security
warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9 were 50, 95, 68, 68, 61, 48, and 61,
with a mean of 64.4. 10.7 cm flux was 98.7, 100.5, 96.2, 95.5, 94.1, 95.5, and
97.4, with a mean of 96.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 4, 35, 24,
8, and 7, with a mean of 12.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 2, 3,
19, 17, 6, and 6, with a mean of 8.6.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey

... You owe "Bob" a living.
---
 * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)