SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP22
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22  ARLP022
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  May 27, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

Solar indices pulled back this week, when average sunspot number was 25.3 for
the May 19 to 25 period, down 38.8 points from the previous week's average of
64.1.

Likewise, average daily solar flux over the same period was 97, down 3.4
points from the previous week's average of 100.4.

Planetary A index average was 7.1, down 2.8 points from 9.9, and average daily
mid-latitude A index was 7, down 3.9 points from 10.9.

We should continue to see this overall decline in solar activity for at least
the next four years.  Compared to past cycles, this one is considerably
weaker. But I wouldn't worry much about some reports in the media suggesting
we face several future solar cycles that would be very weak.  Although
astrophysicists know much more about the sun than in the past, and have far
better tools and resources for monitoring day-to-day activity, the record so
far shows that long range forecasts have varied all over the place, and have
not proved consistent or true.

Remember Mausumi Dikpati?  She was the scientist who predicted that the
current solar cycle (24) would be huge and record breaking, at least compared
to the previous four solar cycles.  It did not turn out the way we hoped.  We
might consider the same for more pessimistic forecasts in popular news media.

Some links concerning Dikpatu and her forecast:

http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/

http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/CV.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausumi_Dikpati

The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux at 90 and 85 on May 27 and
28, 90 on May 29 and 30, 85 on May 31 to June 2, 90 on June 3 to 7, 95 on June
8, 100 on June 9 and 10, 95 on June 11 and 12, 90 on June 13 to 16, 85 on June
17 to 20, 90 on June 21 to 25 (except 85 on June 23), 95 on June 26 to 30 and
90 on July 1 to 4.

The latest prediction for planetary A index is 12, 8, 14, 20 and 12 on May 27
to 31, then 5, 8, 15, 35, 30 and 15 on June 1 to 6, 5 on June 7 to 10, 12 on
June 11 to 13, 8 on June 14 and 15, then 5, 15, 12, and 10 on June 16 to 19, 5
on June 20 and 21, then 12, 10, 8, 5, 15, 12 and 8 on June 22 to 28, 15 on
June 29 and 30, then 35, 30 and 15 on July 1 to 3, and 5 on July 4 to 7.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW from the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us his
geomagnetic forecast a day early this week.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 27 to June 22, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be: Quiet on June 19 and 20 Mostly quiet on May 31,
June 7 and 8, 21 Quiet to unsettled on May 27, 30, June 9 and 10, 14 to 16,
18, 22 Quiet to active on May 28 and 29, June 1 to 3, 6, 11 to 13, 17 Active
to disturbed on (May 28 and 29), June 4 and 5

Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May 28 and 29, June
1 to 6, 10 to 13, 17 and 18

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Here are a couple of articles about a giant sunspot last week and about
changes in Earth's magnetic field:

http://www.siue.edu/news/2016/05/Sunspot.shtml

http://bit.ly/1WZI86g

N8II sent this report on Wednesday, May 25:

"There was a good Asian opening on 20 CW this AM, heard XV9NPS about S5,
worked BX2AK S 2-5 and worked a JA who was S8 all well past the usual peak of
propagation around 1300Z today."

Douglas Moore sent this article from Science Daily about researchers in the
Antarctic discovering new facets of space weather:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160520124427.htm

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arr
.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25 were 38, 43, 17, 15, 13, 24, and 27,
with a mean of 25.3. 10.7 cm flux was 98.8, 99.5, 97.8, 97.4, 97.4, 94.3, and
93.6, with a mean of 97. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 15, 7, 5, 6,
and 3, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 16, 5,
4, 6, and 4 with a mean of 7.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey

... Seinfeld was a show about nothing.
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