SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP42
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  October 14, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

At 0356 UTC on October 13, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this
geomagnetic warning:

"Increased solar wind speed due to coronal hole effects expected for 14-15
Oct. Active conditions forecast with possible Minor Storm periods.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
14 Oct:  Active to Minor Storm
15 Oct:  Active"

Solar flux and sunspot numbers rose over the past week, while geomagnetic
indicators were down.

Average daily sunspot numbers for October 6-12 rose 34.3 points to 55, and
average daily solar flux rose 15.2 points to 101.9, referenced to the previous
seven days.

Average planetary A index declined from 21.4 to 6.6, and mid-latitude A index
from 15.1 to 5.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on October 14, 90 on October 15-21, 85 on October
22-26, 80 on October 27-29, 90 and 95 on October 30-31, 100 on November 1-2,
105 on November 3-7, 110 on November 8-9, 105 and 100 on November 10-11, 95 on
November 12-14, 90 on November 15-17, and 85 on November 18-22

Predicted planetary A index is 60 and 25 on October 14-15, 15 on October
16-17, 10 on October 18-20, 5 on October 21-22, 20 on October 23, 35 on
October 24-26, 20 on October 27, 15 on October 28-30, 25 on October 31, 12 on
November 1, 5 on November 2-6, 8 on November 7-8, then 5, 12 and 15 on
November 9-11, then 12, 20 and 8 on November 12-14, 5 on November 15-18, 20 on
November 19 and 30 on November 20-22.



Here is the weekly geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 14 - November 10, 2016

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on October 20, November 8-9,
Mostly quiet on October 19,
Quiet to unsettled on October 21, November 2-7
Quiet to active on October 14-(16), 18, 22, 26-28, November 10
Active to disturbed on October 17, 23-25, 29-30, November 1

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on October
14-(16), 22-24, November 6-10

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Interesting article about interaction between various solar activity from New
Jersey Institute of Technology:  http://bit.ly/2dSlDn3



Jon Jones, N0JK wrote early this morning:

"A geomagnetic storm was in progress the evening of Oct. 13 (Oct. 14 UTC).
During the storm sporadic-E appeared on 6 meters across the desert southwest
states.

"Here in Kansas -- KS7S DM41 was strong on 50.140 MHz at 0115z Oct 14. N0LL
EM09 heard the XE2HWB DL44 beacon loud at same time. Sporadic-E is rare in
October, perhaps related to the geomagnetic activity?"

No doubt! The planetary A index yesterday (Thursday, October 13) was 43.
Predicted planetary A index for today, October 14 is 60! More excitement
anticipated.



I had an email exchange over the past week with Bil Paul, KD6JUI of Dixon,
California about operating from his kayak, which is described in his article
"A Multi-band Antenna for Kayaks and Boats" in the November 2016 issue of QST.
Here is what Bil wrote.

"I saw the solar flux was predicted to be 99 yesterday (Oct. 6) so went out in
my kayak with the kayak antenna I devised (in Nov. QST) and had some stateside
QSOs (longest distance: Maine) -- but all those were obtained by answered
others' CQs. Then I called a CQ on my own on 17m SSB running 10 watts and
JH1OCC answered. He was having no trouble copying me but with my very modest
antenna I had trouble copying him. I was sitting in saline river water on the
edge of the Sacramento River but between him and me was only land. So I was
quite surprised to snag him. There were other foreign stations coming in on
17m but I never try to compete in pileups!"

By the way, even though the predicted solar flux for October 6 was 99, the
actual value rose to 101.5 on that day, and the increase continued over
following days til it reached 104.5 on October 9.
Solar flux is expected to rise in a similar manner on November 1-11, reaching
a peak of 110 on November 8-9.



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt
://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12 were 55, 50, 62, 58, 64, 56, and 40,
with a mean of 55. 10.7 cm flux was 101.5, 104.2, 104.3, 104.5, 102, 99.2, and
97.6, with a mean of 101.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 8, 5, 11,
4, and 6, with a mean of 6.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 5, 7,
4, 7, 3, and 5, with a mean of 5.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... I have a rock garden. Last week three of them died!
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