SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  October 21, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

Over the past reporting week (October 13-19) compared to the previous seven
days average daily sunspot number declined from 55 to 31, while average daily
solar flux dropped from 101.9 to 83.4.

Planetary A index increased from 6.6 to 19.1, and average mid-latitude A index
jumped from 5 to 14.

This is the opposite of what happened two weeks ago compared to last week,
when A indices decreased but solar flux and sunspot numbers rose.

The latest prediction for solar flux (from the October 20 prediction) shows
these values: 75 on October 21-23, 72 on October 24, 75 on October 25-26, 80
on October 27, 75 on October 28-29, 80 on October 30, 85 on October 31 through
November 5, 90 on November 6-8, 85 on October 9-11, 80 on November 12-14, 75
on November 15-19, 70 on November 20-22, 75 on November 23-25, 80 on November
26 and 85 on November 27-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21, then 22, 24 and 40 on October
22-24, then 44, 40 and 22 on October 24-27, 15 on October 28-30, 25 on October
31, 12 on November 1, 5 on November 2-5, 8 on November 6, 5 on November 7-10,
then 10, 24, 26, 12 and 8 on November 11-15, 5 on November 16-17, then 12 and
22 on November 18-19, 35 on November 20-22, 20 on November 23, 15 on November
24-26, 25 on November 27, 12 on November 28 and 5 from November 29 to December
2.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent the following
geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 21-November 16, 2016.

"Geomagnetic field will be:

"Quiet on November 7-8
Mostly quiet on November 3-4, 9-11, 15-16
Quiet to unsettled on October 21, November 1-2, 5-6, 14
Quiet to active on October 22-23, 29-31, November 12-13
Active to disturbed on October 24-28

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on October
22-31, November 5-6, 11-13."



Here is a web article about a nearby star which seems to exhibit sunspot
activity:

http://bit.ly/2enuNmR

Another solar article, but this one regarding our own Sun:

http://bit.ly/2eYtKNJ



Reader Roger Larson, KF6IVA of Harrison, Maine says he uses an inexpensive
alternative to solar telescopes called the Sunocular. A week ago he sent this
message: "You can buy a special pair of binoculars (Sunoculars, 8x32
binoculars with a special coating) that allow you to observe the Sun. I can
see a big sunspot headed off to the western limb, other that the Sun is
featureless."

A week later he wrote: "The Sun was featureless yesterday. With these
'sunoculars' you can make out large sunspots and therefore get an idea of how
active the Sun is. I have seen specialized solar
telescopes which would show more due to their higher magnification but they
cost a thousand dollars plus."

Here is the last correspondence from Roger, received just as I was completing
this bulletin:

"They work pretty well realizing that they are only good for observing the
Sun. I imagine that you've looked at the Moon with binoculars, the Sun is
roughly the same angular dimensions (30 arc minutes).  The Moon has a lot of
features visible in 8 power binoculars, the Sun is featureless unless there's
a large sunspot(s). Along the edge of the Moon you'll see some 'rainbow'
effects due to imperfections in the lens unless you look with expensive
binoculars. Well there are a few of these rainbow effects visible in the
Sunoculars no worse than any other binoculars I've used. The objective lens
are coated with a material that allows ten-millionth (1x10-5) of the light to
pass through. The Sun appears about as bright as a full Moon in them."



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt
://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19 were 41, 38, 35, 25, 23, 24, and 31,
with a mean of 31. 10.7 cm flux was 95.3, 92.8, 84.9, 80.9, 76.2, 77.4, and
76.5, with a mean of 83.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 43, 24, 11, 18,
20, 11, and 7, with a mean of 19.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 30,
20, 8, 13, 12, 10, and 5, with a mean of 14.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

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