SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46  ARLP046
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 11, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

At 0002 UTC on November 9, this geomagnetic warning was distributed by
Australia's Space Forecast Centre:

"SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 16/48 ISSUED AT 0002UT/09 NOVEMBER
2016 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND
STREAM AND POSSIBLE GLANCING BLOW FROM CME ASSOCIATED WITH 05NOV FILAMENT ON
09-10 NOVEMBER 2016

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
09 Nov:  Quiet to Minor Storm
10 Nov:  Active"

Later on the same day, the USAF Space Weather operation Ap forecast predicts
the disturbance perhaps a few days later. The USAF forecast was issued about
21 hours later than the Australian forecast. Now we have an updated forecast
from Thursday, November 10.

At 0005 UTC on November 11 a similar warning was issued:

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 11-12 NOVEMBER 2016.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Nov:  Unsettled with possible Active to Minor Storm periods
12 Nov:  Active to Minor Storm"

Average daily sunspot number over the past week (November 3-9) doubled from
9.1 to 18.7, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux
changed only marginally from 77.5 to 76.9. Geomagnetic indices were lower,
with average planetary A index changing from 18.1 to 6.4, and mid-latitude A
index (measured at Wallops Island, Virginia) moved from 13.4 to 4.3.

Predicted planetary A index is 26, 28, 18 and 12 on November 11-14, then 8, 5,
3 and 5 on November 15-18, then 8, 15, 54, 42 and 24 on November 19-23, then
18, 22, 18, 12 and 10 on November 24-28, 8 on November 29-30, 5 on December
1-3, then 8, 20 and 8 on December 4-6, 10, 12 and 20 on December 7-9, then 18,
10 and 8 on December 10-12, 5 on December 13-15, then 8, 15, 54, 42 and 24 on
December 16-20, and 18, 22 and 18 on December 21-23.

Predicted solar flux is 80 on November 11-13, 85 on November 14-15, 90 on
November 16-17, then 80, 77 and 75 on November 18-20, 78 on November 21-22, 79
on November 23-25, 78 on November 26, 77 on
November 27-28, 76 on November 29-30, 77 on December 1-3, 75 on December 4-5,
then 78 on December 6-15, 77 and 75 on December 16-17, then 78 on December
18-19 and 79 on December 20-22.


F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends us this
geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 11-December 7, 2016.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 15-17, December 1-4
Mostly quiet on November 14, 19, 28, December 7
Quiet to unsettled on November 11, 18, 26-27, December 5
Quiet to active on November 12-13, 20, 24, 29-30, December 6
Active to disturbed on November 21-22, (23, 25)

Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on November 11-13, 18-20

Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. -
Reliability of predictions is reduced at present.


Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia checked in with
observations on November 10:

"Nothing too exciting has happened on the bands until today. SFI has been
running around 76-78 most of the week with quiet geomagnetic conditions, but
the limited daylight now is really limiting polar path DX with just a few JAs
and R0XR in Eastern Asiatic Russia logged on 20 around 2300Z.

"Signals are good from Australia most mornings around 1230Z on 20 meters. 15
meters is open most days to the Mediterranean area of EU extending up to
England with some strong signals from that area. Today, Nov 10, was pretty
typical with signals improving around 1600Z to EU with Peter, MI1ERL in
Northern Ireland being the loudest worked at S9+20dB on peaks. I then checked
12 meter CW to find ZD8W on Ascension Island in the south Atlantic with a
Spanish station heard calling him. I logged ZD8W, then proceeded to work
several Spanish stations with good signals along with two from Portugal
including CT1DGE running 5 watts. EA8DO and EA8TL in the Canary Is. were both
S9+. But the big surprise of the day was a call from Finland, OH2LZC at 1639Z,
also on 12 meters. There must have been some auroral Es, Niko was only running
200W to an 80M loop antenna and was S5 on peaks with deep rapid QSB."


Ran across this interesting piece today about reconstructing sunspot data from
400 years ago:

http://bit.ly/2fpj8EK


If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see htt
://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9 were 23, 25, 24, 23, 24, 0, and 12,
with a mean of 18.7. 10.7 cm flux was 75.6, 76.7, 76.7, 76.2, 76.5, 76.9, and
79.9, with a mean of 76.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 5, 3, 5, 4,
3, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 3, 2,
4, 2, 2, and 5, with a mean of 4.3.

NNNN
/EX

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