SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 27, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot number rose from 22.6 to 52.7 (from 0 two weeks ago) and
solar flux from 77.1 to 83.9, for the January 19-25 reporting week.

In addition to this recent uptick, the first sunspot group of Cycle 25 (12620)
appeared on December 18. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA has an excellent article
about this in the next (February) issue of the Northwest Indiana DX Club
newsletter (see http://nwidxclub.weebly.com/newsletters in early February).

Heliospheric Physicist Dr. Tamitha Skov mentioned the new Solar Cycle 25 spot
in a recent video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMEJEwlm4gw

Sunspot 12620 was expected to return (if still active) around January 4-6, but
did not show again.

It appeared in these alerts on December 21-24:

http://bit.ly/2jZ04Q0

Here is an image from December 22:

http://bit.ly/2kt1UbM

Predicted solar flux is 82 on January 27, 80 on January 28, 78 on January 29
through February 3, 75 on February 4-7, 76 on February 8, 77 on February 9-12,
then 78, 79, and 81 on February 13-15, 83 on February 16-18, then 85, 83 and
82 on February 19-21, 80 on February 22-24, 78 on February 25, 77 on February
26-27, 76 on February 29 through March 1, 75 on March 2-6, and 76 on March 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on January 27-28, 8 on January 29, 12 on
January 30-31, then 18, 15, 20 and 16 on February 1-4, 12, 10 and 8 on
February 5-7, 5 on February 8-13, 15 on February 14, 10 on February 15-16, 8
on February 17-19, 5 on February 20-22, then 12, 15, 8, 10, 12 and 16 on
February 23-28, and 18, 20, 16 and 12 on March 1-4.



F.K Janda, OK1HH sent us this:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 27-February 22, 2017

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on January 27, February 1, 11-12, 14, 22
Mostly quiet on January 30, February 9-10, 20-21
Quiet to unsettled on January 31, February 13, 19
Quiet to active on January 28-29, February 3-5, 15, 17
Active to disturbed on February 2, 6-7 (8, 16, 18)

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January
26, (31,) February (1-5,) 9, (15)

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://
rrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w
aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on
propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or
ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 19 through 25, 2017 were 26, 61, 67, 61, 53, 55,
and 46, with a mean of 52.7. 10.7 cm flux was 79.5, 83.2, 86.1, 86.8, 84.1,
82.3, and 85.1, with a mean of 83.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 11,
11, 11, 9, 5, 3, and 6, with a mean of 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices
were 10, 9, 9, 8, 2, 3, and 4, with a mean of 6.4.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... I'll ride with you anytime, Spike!
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