XPost: can.politics, bc.politics, ont.politics   
   From: ConsRCons@govt.cda   
      
   Now, who coulda predicted that?   {->   
      
   And if the 'middle class' follows their inclinations, Thomas Mulcair   
   would best represent them in Ottawa.   
      
   _______________________________________________   
      
   CTVNews.ca - Friday, September 27, 2013   
      
   A new Ipsos Reid/CTV News poll suggests Canada's major political parties   
   are in a three-way race. (Ipsos Reid)   
      
      
   Three-way race shaping up ahead of 2015 federal election: poll   
      
      
   Two years before the next federal election, Canada’s major political   
   parties are in a three-way race, but the “honeymoon” period for   
   Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau appears to be over, a new Ipsos Reid/CTV   
   News poll suggests.   
      
   If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would get 32 per   
   cent of the vote, up two points since the end of June. The Liberals   
   would garner 31 per cent of the vote and the New Democrats 26 per cent.   
      
   Since May, the Liberals have lost a six-point lead, suggesting the surge   
   in support following Trudeau’s election as party leader is starting to   
   dwindle.   
      
   However, 69 per cent of surveyed Canadians still believe that Trudeau   
   has the best chance of defeating Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the   
   next election. Trudeau’s admission that he smoked marijuana at least   
   once since being elected as an MP did not seem to affect his level of   
   support, according to the poll.   
      
   Meanwhile, only 31 per cent of decided voters believe that NDP Leader   
   Thomas Mulcair is Harper’s most formidable opponent.   
      
   Even among NDP supporters, more than 40 per cent believe the Liberals   
   have the best chance of defeating the government.   
      
   But the Conservatives continue to lead the way on economic issues. Among   
   voters who said the economy is the most important issue, 45 per cent   
   believe the Conservatives are the best economic policy managers,   
   followed by 28 per cent who chose the Liberals and 14 per cent who chose   
   the NDP.   
      
      
      
   Tories trailing on environment, health care   
      
      
   On issues like the environment, social services and health care, the   
   Conservatives did not fare as well.   
      
   Only three per cent of those surveyed said the Conservatives are the   
   best party to manage environmental issues.   
      
   The Harper government has drawn the ire of environmentalists and   
   affected community groups over the proposed Keystone XL pipeline   
   project, which would carry bitumen from the Alberta oilsands to the   
   refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.   
      
   Thirty-six per cent of surveyed Canadians said the Green Party would   
   best handle the environment portfolio, followed by the NDP (25 per   
   cent), the Liberals (11 per cent).   
      
   Here is the breakdown of perceived party competence on other issues:   
      
   - Healthcare: Liberals (31 per cent), NDP (25 per cent), Conservatives   
   (24 per cent), Bloc (5 per cent), Green (3 per cent)   
   - Jobs/Unemployment: Liberals (31 per cent), NDP (23 per cent),   
   Conservatives (21 per cent), Green (3 per cent), Bloc (2 per cent)   
   - Social services:NDP (28 per cent), Liberals (27 per cent),   
   Conservatives (21 per cent), Green (5 per cent), Bloc (2 per cent)   
   - Education: Conservatives (29 per cent), Liberals (28 per cent), NDP   
   (25 per cent), Green (7 per cent), Bloc (3 per cent)   
      
      
   Foreign-born voters and the middle class   
      
      
   The poll also suggests that the Conservatives have an edge when it comes   
   to voters who were born outside of Canada. The party has a 10-point lead   
   (37 per cent versus 27 per cent) over the Liberals among foreign-born   
   voters. The NDP would get 25 per cent of the foreign-born vote.   
      
   Among Canadian-born voters, on the other hand, the Liberals and   
   Conservatives are statistically tied with 32 per cent and 31 per cent of   
   the vote, respectively.   
      
   When asked which party and leader best understand middle-class families   
   and the pressures they face, the NDP and Mulcair came out on top with 38   
   per cent of the voters’ support, followed by the Liberals under   
   Trudeau (30 per cent) and the Harper government (26 per cent).   
      
      
   The Ipsos Reid/CTV News poll surveyed 1,305 Canadians online between   
   Sept. 18 and 20. The poll is accurate to within +/-3.5 percentage points.   
      
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