XPost: can.politics, bc.politics, ab.politics   
   XPost: ont.politics, nb.general, ns.general   
   From: ConsRCons@govt.cda   
      
   The Hill Times - Thursday, 01/23/2014 9:02 pm EST   
      
   Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader   
   who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll   
      
      
   PARLIAMENT HILL—The federal Liberal Party has gained   
   voter   
   support at the expense of the governing Conservatives while public   
   approval of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s performance   
   has   
   plunged, new polls suggest.   
      
   And, although New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) is   
   favoured by voters, with nearly half saying he is doing a good job as   
   opposition leader, the NDP is still in third place when it comes to   
   support from decided and leaning voters, the polls by Forum Research and   
   Abacus Data indicate.   
      
   The Forum Research survey, however, also found that Mr. Mulcair   
   (Outremont, Que.) leads when voters are asked which of the leaders would   
   make the best Prime Minister.   
   Twenty nine per cent of the Forum respondents chose Mr. Mulcair, 25 per   
   cent favoured Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) and 19 per cent   
   selected Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.).   
      
   Asked if they approved or disapproved of the job Mr. Harper is doing as   
   Prime Minister, 62 per cent of the respondents disapproved, and only 30   
   per cent approved.   
      
   Meanwhile, 44 per cent of the respondents approved of the way Mr.   
   Mulcair was doing his job as leader of the opposition and only 28 per   
   cent disapproved. Forty-five per cent of the respondents approved of the   
   way Mr. Trudeau is doing his job as Liberal leader and 36 per cent   
   disapproved.   
      
   Despite the support for Mr. Mulcair, the Forum Research survey last week   
   found 37 per cent of the voters who responded were leaning in favour of   
   voting Liberal or intended to vote Liberal, 28 per cent were leaning or   
   decided in favour of the Conservatives, but only 25 per cent were   
   leaning or intending to vote NDP.   
      
   The Abacus Data survey, also conducted last week, found 34 per cent of   
   the committed voters across Canada who responded to their survey said   
   they would vote Liberal, compared to 28 per cent who were prepared to   
   vote Conservative and 24 per cent who said they would vote NDP.   
      
   Forum Research found five per cent favoured the Bloc   
   Québécois and four per cent were leaning or   
   decided in   
   favour of the Green Party, while Abacus found seven per cent committed   
   to the Green Party and five per cent would vote Bloc.   
      
   Both polling firms found an old fault line of voter opinion in   
   Canada—with support for the Conservative Party   
   strongest in   
   Western Canada and support for the Liberals strongest in Ontario,   
   Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.   
      
   The Liberal Party led the Forum Research findings in Ontario with 37 per   
   cent support and even more, 39 per cent, in Quebec. The Conservative   
   Party registered with a meagre 12 per cent support from   
   Forum’s Quebec finding, and 33 per cent in Ontario.   
      
   Forum found 30 per cent of respondents in Quebec were leaning or   
   intending to vote NDP, and only 24 per cent of Ontario voters favoured   
   the New Democrats.   
      
   Quebec and Ontario together will account for 199 of the 338 House of   
   Commons seats to be contested in the next election following the   
   creation of 30 new electoral districts after the 2011 census.   
      
   In the four Atlantic provinces, Liberal support reached new heights in   
   the Forum Research survey at 58 per cent of decided and leaning voters,   
   with the Conservative Party at a dismal 14 per cent and the NDP at 23   
   per cent.   
      
   The Abacus survey found 53 per cent of voters in Atlantic Canada   
   intended to vote Liberal, with support for the Conservatives and the NDP   
   tied at 21 per cent. The Abacus results in the Atlantic appeared to   
   include the entire sample of committed and uncommitted voters.   
      
   In the Western Canadian provinces, the Forum Research poll found the   
   Conservative Party dominated Alberta with 57 per cent of support from   
   decided and leaning voters, led in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with 38 per   
   cent support, but placed second in British Columbia with 32 per cent   
   support from decided or leaning voters.   
      
   The Forum Research found 22 per cent of voters in Manitoba and   
   Saskatchewan were leaning toward voting Liberal or intended to vote that   
   way, while 32 per cent favoured the NDP. In B.C., the Forum results   
   found 36 per cent either favoured or intended to vote Liberal and 23 per   
   cent favoured the NDP or intended to vote that way.   
      
   The Abacus Data survey found 37 per cent of its respondents in Manitoba   
   and Saskatchewan intended to vote Conservative, as did 51 per cent of   
   its Alberta respondents and 36 per cent of B.C respondents.   
      
   Abacus found 29 per cent of voters in Manitoba and Saskatchewan intended   
   to vote Liberal, with 25 per cent planning to vote NDP. The Abacus poll   
   found 24 per cent of Alberta respondents intending to vote Liberal, and   
   18 per cent supporting the NDP. In B.C., the Abacus survey found 26 per   
   cent planning to vote Liberal and 25 per cent intended to vote NDP.   
      
     “The (country) is now divided again along the   
   Manitoba and   
   Ontario border between a blue western Canada and a red eastern Canada   
   with orange hues concentrated in B.C. and Quebec,” said   
   David   
   Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data.   
      
   Bruce Anderson, a prominent political analyst and the chair of Abacus   
   Data, noted other aspects of the survey found that the Conservative   
   Party and the NDP have each lost more than 25 per cent of their voters   
   since 2011, while the Liberals have lost only 12 per cent and   
   picked up “most of what drifted away from the other   
   two parties.”   
      
   ÃƒÂ¢Ã‚€ÂœThe new bottom line is this, neither the Conservatives   
   nor   
   the NDP can win unless they reverse these patterns,” Mr.   
   Anderson said in a release from Abacus.   
      
   The two Abacus analysts said the Liberal Party will be battling to keep   
   votes it has won back from both the NDP and the Conservatives since the   
   last election.   
      
   Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff noted his firm’s   
   survey found that as Mr. Mulcair’s popularity remained   
   high   
   and even increased in some areas, Mr. Trudeau’s support   
   dropped slightly over the month.   
      
   ÃƒÂ¢Ã‚€ÂœWhile the Liberals continue to be the party to beat as   
   the   
      
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