XPost: can.politics, bc.politics, ont.politics   
   XPost: ab.politics   
   From: ConsRCons@govt.cda   
      
   Tuesday, February 18, 2014 - thestar.com   
      
      
   How Conservatives are setting stage for 2015 election: Analysis   
      
   Canada’s governing party is grabbing all the legislative tools,   
   parliamentary resources, fiscal levers and campaign tactics it can to   
   land a victory in 2015 — a victory that polls now hint may be elusive.   
      
      
   OTTAWA—The permanent political campaign, version 2014, has hit a new   
   level of sophistication. Some might call it cynicism, but let’s call it   
   what it also is: impressive.   
      
   Think of it as a three-act play. A power play.   
      
   First, there are the Conservative government’s proposed electoral law   
   changes. Then there is Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s campaign   
   strategy, revealed this week in documents obtained exclusively by the   
   Toronto Star. Finally, there is Harper’s budget target for a fat 2015   
   surplus and big tax cuts that his political rivals would be hard-pressed   
   to repeal.   
      
   Put it all together and you see a governing party that is grabbing all   
   the legislative tools, parliamentary resources, fiscal levers and   
   campaign tactics it can to land a victory in 2015 — a victory that polls   
   now hint may be elusive.   
      
   The strengths of the play are structural. The Conservatives are setting   
   up a framework that they, more than any other party, are in the best   
   position to take advantage of.   
      
   But this plot has underlying weaknesses of the character/human nature   
   kind. Hubris, ambition and frustration can undo the best-laid plans. For   
   all his reputed tactical genius, Harper’s people skills are weak and   
   fail him repeatedly. His caucus contains backbenchers itching for more   
   freedom. His cabinet has cracks with ministers publicly disagreeing   
   among themselves. And his own instinct under fire has been to retrench,   
   not reach out — a reflex he may come to regret.   
      
   Let’s start with the strengths.   
      
   There is the government’s whopping big move to introduce a bill to   
   overhaul many of the rules regarding how votes are cast, how elections   
   offences are investigated and prosecuted, how much money parties can   
   raise, and how much they can spend.   
      
   The new rules would apply to all, but in the case of fundraising and   
   spending, they stand to benefit the Conservatives most. The government   
   wants to raise the limit on individual annual donations to political   
   parties to $1,500 (from $1,200) and the overall spending limit for   
   national and local campaigns by 5 per cent each. A 5-per-cent increase   
   could allow parties to spend about $1 million more.   
      
   The law would allow more mid-campaign fundraising outreach to donors   
   (those calls cost money) and not have that count against its spending tab.   
      
   “They’re changing the rules so they can spend more money,” says Tom   
   Flanagan, a former Conservative senior aide to Harper and the author of   
   a new book about “permanent campaign” strategies.   
      
   Flanagan points to the party’s deep database of past donors upon which   
   to draw. Once the calls are made, he says, “you’ll do a lot more than   
   ask for money … there’s all kinds of things you can do.”   
      
   “It’s clearly restructuring of the rules in a way that’s neutral on its   
   face because the rules are the same for all parties, but the   
   Conservatives are far and away in better position to take advantage of it.”   
      
   Flanagan suspects that over time the Liberals will catch up, but he says   
   they likely don’t have as large a backlist of donors as the Conservatives.   
      
   Then there are the Conservatives’ well-advanced internal campaign plans.   
      
   The Star reported last week on the Conservatives’ election readiness   
   strategy and how the party is overhauling its campaign machinery:   
   everything from political operations and information technology, to   
   fundraising and communications. It is building a state-of-the-art   
   data-scraping and data-mining machine to create a “Conservative Digital   
   Nation” (as it is called in the party documents obtained by the Star).   
      
   The goal is to identify and recruit more party members, donors and   
   voters. The party has money in the bank but the number of members and   
   donors is slipping. The party must reverse that trend.   
      
   With a newly redrawn electoral map, all parties will be fighting the   
   next election on new territory. Documents show the Conservative Party is   
   moving to speed up its nominations, to aid incumbents facing challengers   
   and to tap into parliamentary resources where possible.   
      
   It is in the process of cataloguing “incumbency tactics” to help sitting   
   MPs keep their seats. It plans to use the visibility of cabinet   
   ministers on tour across the country to mobilize regional organizers to   
   arrange photo opportunities for local Conservatives. It has set a goal   
   to “connect” the prime minister more “with people.”   
      
   Party officials were to discuss with the prime minister’s office the   
   creation of two “categories” of events on Harper’s schedule: “open to   
   members or closed to members.” Part of the “tactical plans and   
   strategies” included “leveraging” the popularity of his wife Laureen.   
   She is to become more visible through a series of videos that will be   
   pushed online to more Canadians.   
      
   The party is realigning its computer databases to map the redistributed   
   ridings, hoping to have address data applied to the new boundaries by   
   next week. It will draw on Elections Canada’s poll-by-poll “geospatial”   
   data in May to flesh out detailed profiles of the Canadian electorate.   
   By November, it will have more data from Elections Canada, “which   
   through processing is akin to an electors list,” one Conservative   
   document says.   
      
   “Everything we do is part of the strategy to ensure we win in 2015 with   
   another majority government,” another document quotes executive director   
   Dimitri Soudas saying.   
      
   Then there is the federal budget. If all goes to plan — a Conservative   
   source tells the Star — the government would deliver tax cuts in a first   
   budget implementation bill next year. It would pass the legislature by   
   June and be in effect by a September election call for the Oct. 19   
   election mandated by law.   
      
   Last week a whole new debate opened up over whether those tax cuts would   
   include income-splitting, with sources saying Prime Minister Stephen   
   Harper agrees with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty that there are better   
   ways to deliver tax cuts to benefit more people. Whatever form they   
   take, the Conservatives believe they will be able to jam their political   
   rivals, forcing the Liberals and the NDP to campaign on repealing tax cuts.   
      
   All this is well and good as a plan. The levers of power are being   
   pulled, just as previous Liberal governments have done in the past in   
   bids to win re-election.   
      
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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