XPost: can.politics, qc.politique   
   From: {~_~}@nyet.ca   
      
   In 1995 Jacques Parizeau blamed the loss of their sovereignty referendum   
   on "money and the ethnic vote".   
   In 2014 it will be accurate to blame their loss in the provincial   
   election on "money and the word 'referendum' ".  Both thanks to   
   Péladeau, a candidate that Marois felt would be their trump card.   
   Instead he became their biggest obstacle.   
      
   ___________________________________________________________   
   March 25, 2014 - Globe and Mail   
      
      
   Quebec Liberals on track to majority, poll shows   
      
   With less than two weeks before the April 7 vote, support for the CAQ   
   has collapsed in favour of the Liberals   
      
      
      
   The Quebec Liberal Party is on course to form a majority government,   
   according to an opinion poll showing the party well ahead of the Parti   
   Québécois.   
      
   The survey, conducted by polling firm Léger, is the first extensive   
   survey of the campaign and corroborates all the signs that PQ's campaign   
   started faltering around the time it unveiled star candidate Pierre-Karl   
   Péladeau and got entangled into debates about sovereignty and a referendum.   
      
   At the same time, pollster Christian Bourque, Léger's executive   
   vice-president, said the Liberals' lead in key ridings is still thin and   
   the dynamic of the campaign has changed, with front-running Liberal   
   Leader Philippe Couillard under fire from all his rivals.   
      
   The adjusted results for the Léger poll:   
      
   • Liberals: 40 per cent   
      
   • PQ: 33 per cent   
      
   • Coalition Avenir Québec: 15 per cent   
      
   • Quebec Solidaire: 9 per cent   
      
   The level of support for the PQ has dropped only marginally compared   
   with previous polls, while Mr. Couillard's Liberals have grown at the   
   expense of the second opposition party, François Legault's Coalition   
   Avenir Québec.   
      
   The results are based on 3,692 respondents from a pre-selected Internet   
   panel who were contacted between March 21 and 23. Because it was an   
   online non-probability survey, the margin of error cannot be determined,   
   but Léger said a traditional phone poll of the same scope would have a   
   1.2 per cent error margin 19 times out of 20.   
      
   Over the three days the poll was conducted, the PQ was lowest at the   
   beginning and improved somewhat the following days. "Is 33 per cent the   
   floor level for the PQ or not? That remains to be seen. The Jell-O   
   hasn't set yet," Mr. Bourque said.   
      
   The election will be decided in a handful of ridings in the heartland   
   between Montreal and Quebec City, in towns like Trois-Rivières,   
   Drummondville or Sherbrooke.   
      
   "The numbers we have this morning would give the Liberals a majority,"   
   Mr. Bourque said. "But with one or two more points for the PQ among the   
   francophones, if the CAQ rises a few points and holds on to a riding or   
   two, we could have a minority government. It's still relatively tight."   
      
   The results may be seen as a reflection of PQ Leader Pauline Marois's   
   faltering campaign, which has failed to frame the ballot question as   
   revolving around the secular charter prohibiting overt religious symbols   
   in the public sector.   
      
   The first part of the campaign saw both Mr. Couillard and Mr. Legault   
   attack Ms. Marois. At the same time, the PQ went off-message when it   
   introduced Mr. Péladeau, who raised his fist at his inaugural press   
   conference as he stated his support for independence.   
      
   The following days were punctuated by talk about the referendum and   
   worried CAQ supporters began defecting to the Liberals, Mr. Bourque   
   said, calling Mr. Péladeau's gesture "the fist pump that changed it all."   
      
   PQ support among francophone voters, who decide the outcome of elections   
   in the province, was down to 40 per cent while the Liberals were up to   
   30 per cent and the CAQ at 17 per cent. Francophone support was up just   
   enough to put the Liberals in the lead in eight out of 14 regions   
   surveyed by the Léger poll.   
      
   The threat of another referendum on sovereignty has emerged as the key   
   ballot question. When asked if they believed that a PQ government would   
   hold another referendum on sovereignty, 77 per cent of those who said   
   they would vote Liberal said yes, as well as 56 per cent of CAQ supporters.   
      
   Yet 61 per cent of PQ supporters said they didn't believe there would be   
   another referendum if the PQ were elected.   
      
   Close to half of those polled – 48 per cent – said the Liberals will win   
   the election.   
      
   Ms. Marois said her party has fallen victim to a campaign of fear run by   
   the Liberals over the threat of a referendum. "We are the victim of a   
   leader, Mr. Couillard, who has nothing audacious to propose to the   
   people," she told a news conference Tuesday morning. "So he's trying to   
   instill fear in the Quebec people."   
      
   Ms. Marois said she was aware Mr. Péladeau would make a rallying cry for   
   an independent country. "It was pertinent, and we agreed to it," she said.   
      
   Mr. Legault opened his daily news conference saying the April 7 vote had   
   turned into a "referendum election" and a lost opportunity to debate   
   other issues.   
      
   "Ms. Marois' petty games have led us into a situation where there won't   
   be a charter under a majority Liberal government," he said. "And Mr.   
   Couillard can be blamed for constantly raising the referendum issue ...   
   while he has no program, no ideas and if he is elected he will be   
   premier by default."   
      
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