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   From: {~_~}@nyet.ca   
      
   By Frank Graves | May 2, 2014   
      
      
   The Ekos poll: Federal Conservatives still mired below 30 per cent   
      
   The past few weeks have been unusually peaceful for Steven Harper and   
   his government. The more or less regular barrage of criticism and   
   sniping which has marked his relationships with media and the opposition   
   over the past year was displaced, temporarily, by a series of surprising   
   events.   
      
   First, the untimely and tragic death of Jim Flaherty led to the   
   short-term suspension of parliamentary invective and a state funeral.   
   That was followed by the unexpected announcement that the RCMP has put   
   aside the Nigel Wright investigation for lack of evidence.   
      
   Then, Elections Canada announced that it was ending its probe of the   
   so-called ‘robocalls’ scandal with no charges or further action   
   anticipated. Finally, the venerable New York Times announced that   
   Canada’s allegedly reeling middle class were, in fact, world-beaters in   
   terms of economic achievement — robbing the opposition parties of a   
   stick with which to beat the government.   
      
   For a government lingering at support levels dramatically short of their   
   stunning majority victory of 2011, this was all very good news. Only an   
   announcement that climate change had been revealed as a cruel hoax by   
   the Royal Society, or that Vladimir Putin was announcing a hasty   
   withdrawal from Ukraine, could have made April any brighter for Stephen   
   Harper.   
      
   So you might well expect all of the polls to start showing a warming   
   trend in the Conservatives’ favour, breaking up the lead enjoyed by the   
   rejuvenated Liberal party for over a year.   
      
   But the Conservatives might want to keep the champagne on ice for the   
   time being.   
      
   Our most recent poll (see the graphs at the bottom of the page) does not   
   find what two methodologically different recent polls found.  We see no   
   new Conservative surge.  In fact, we don’t see much of anything in our   
   carefully constructed probability sample of nearly 4,000 Canadians.   
   While different firms may disagree on this point, we feel much more   
   comfortable with these methods than with those that don’t come from   
   probability samples and that cannot speak for Canadians who can’t, or   
   won’t, complete surveys online.   
      
   If we squint hard enough, there may be some marginal evidence of   
   improvement for Mr. Harper — or maybe not.  The more obvious and   
   important finding is the Liberals’ continued and stable lead.  The   
   bigger question may be this: If the events of the past few weeks can’t   
   lift Mr. Harper out of his sub-30 polling freeze, can anything?   
      
   Regionally, the Ontario race — the key to 2015 — appears to have   
   tightened, although the Liberals still lead there. Conservative support   
   seems inefficiently concentrated in the Prairies; wide margins of   
   victory do not translate into extra seats.   The NDP, meanwhile, is   
   doing very well in Quebec.     <<==   ヽ(^。^)ノ   
      
   Justin Trudeau now seems to be registering with younger voters, a group   
   with which he had been unable to make any headway until recently.  It   
   should be noted, however, that youth support is a double-edged sword:   
   While the ability to connect with young people will be crucial in   
   establishing a new, youthful brand, young people consistently fail to   
   vote in anywhere near the same numbers as their parents and grandparents.   
      
   It is also interesting that there is no distinct age profile for Liberal   
   supporters. Unlike the Conservative Party (who draw their support   
   largely from older Canadians) or the Greens (who rely disproportionately   
   on youth), the Liberals perform equally well across all age groups.   
      
   While the NDP has fallen to a distant third place in recent months,   
   there is some good news in what is otherwise a rather bleak poll for   
   them.  Although they are not in particularly good shape in terms of   
   first choice, nearly half of Liberal supporters would consider the NDP   
   as their second choice.  These results suggest that if Trudeau stumbles,   
   the NDP might pick up the promiscuous progressive vote that will support   
   any plausible replacement for the Conservatives.   
      
   Still, when we combine Canadians’ first and second choices, the Liberals   
   provide a theoretical home to just over half of Canadian voters.  While   
   it may be premature to declare the rebirth of Canada’s former “natural   
   governing party”, these results do suggest that Mr. Trudeau has been   
   successful in re-establishing the party’s centrist brand.   
      
   Finally, we asked Canadians whether they approve of Canada’s three major   
   party leaders.  Mr. Harper’s approval rating remains mired at below 30   
   points and, while he remains a superstar within his own party, he is   
   highly unpopular everywhere else.   
      
   Mr. Mulcair, meanwhile, comes in as the least objectionable choice;   
   while he is tied with Mr. Trudeau in terms of approval, he has, by far,   
   the lowest disapproval rating.   
      
   Mr. Trudeau, on the other hand, is a highly polarizing figure: He enjoys   
   the approval of nearly two-fifths of Canadians, although a similar   
   proportion — 35 per cent — reject his leadership approach.   
      
   On the other hand, Mr. Harper enjoyed the approval of barely one-third   
   of Canadians when he won a majority mandate. It’s not the fervour of   
   one’s opponents but the enthusiasm and commitment of one’s supporters   
   that wins elections.   
      
      
   http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/05/02/the-ekos-poll-federal-conserv   
   tives-still-mired-below-30-per-cent/   
      
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