XPost: can.internet.highspeed   
   From: Canuck57@nospam.com   
      
   Some Guy wrote:   
   > Canuck57 wrote:   
   >   
   >> 2010 will be the year of inflation.  The price we pay for our   
   >> governments indescression with debt and money creation.   
   >   
   > You will not see inflation here unless the Bank of Canada raises   
   > interest rates.  The bank rate is currently 0.25%.  A historic low.   
      
   That is ot how it works.  Interest rates are meant to shore up currency   
   value.  By the time rates go up, the infaltion is in the system even if   
   it hasn't been realized at retail.   
      
   Take US numbers, GDP up 3% but with unemplyment up to 22% that means   
   fewer people working and less being produced, but the costs of the goods   
   is higher.  That is real inflation in the pipeline.   
      
   Lets ahve this conversation in 3 months, if it holds you will understand   
   more of the effects.   
      
   Besides, government really can't afford to raise rates this time, they   
   are broke.  And higher rates will make it worse.  Thus, a depreciation   
   currency is guaranteed.   
      
   > The BofC will only raise the rate if they have trouble selling federal   
   > debt.  There is no sign of that happening.   
      
   Governments in Canada, including BC, Ontario and Quebec, as well as many   
   cities like Toronto and Vancouver haven't been able to raise money at   
   all.  Ottawa survises only because it can create money.  And that   
   creation is a devaluation bubble that could hot any time between now and   
   the end of 2010.   
      
   This isn't new, it is a replay of the 70's.   
      
   > The BofC is under extreme pressure to *not* raise rates because that   
   > will increase the value of the CDN dollar with respest to the US   
   > dollar.  If the US raises rates, then that will give the BofC some   
   > leeway to do the same.   
      
   And if the CDN falls with the USD say 50%, your next litre of gaoline   
   might be $2.  Bet your wages don't keep up.  Further, want anything like   
   steel, rubber, bananas, coffee, they all too will double.  This is   
   inflation due to no support on the currency.   
      
   >> I expect as our US and CAD currencies fall relative to the rest of   
   >> the world that costs across the board are starting to creap up.   
   >   
   > Other countries and other currencies are in no stronger position to take   
   > any sort of lead.  That's the fallacy of your argument.   
      
   Actually not, look at Brazil in the last year.  But agree in that many   
   are doing the same.  That is why the rush on gold and hard assets.   
      
   >> Last months US numbers tell the story.  GDP up 3% yet unemployment is   
   >> also up.  That only happens because of inflation.   
   >   
   > The broadest measure of U.S. unemployment (which includes unemployed,   
   > underemployed and  discouraged workers who stopped looking for work) was   
   > 17.5% in October according to the U.S. Labor Department. The previous   
   > high was 17.1% in December 1982.   
      
   Depends which adjustments and governemtn turd polish you use.  The raw   
   unemployment is much higher when you include everyone.   
      
   > You won't have even the potential for inflation until the official   
   > unemployment numbers in the US falls to below 8%.   
   >   
   >> If GDP is up, and the use of labour is not also up, then it   
   >> means cost increases are making it into the supply chain.   
   >   
   > No.   
   >   
   > It means that various levels of gov't are spending more, and that what   
   > they're buying is being provided by the current pool of employed people   
   > - working overtime if they have to.   
   >   
   > The spending habbits of US consumers are becoming increasingly   
   > unpredictable as this recession drags on, and you can't predict   
   > inflation next year until we stop talking about deflation.   
      
   Yes, and as that newly created money hits the streets it becomes   
   inflationary.  Government can create all the money it wants, but it is   
   inflationary as the economy value hasn't inceased at all, in fact it is   
   decreassing!  This "recessionary".   
      
   >> If gold is an indication, and like the past history again   
   >> repeats itself, about 300% inflation is due in the next 5   
   >> to 10 years.   
   >   
   > No.  Gold will crash in the next 3 - 6 months when speculators bail out   
   > of the metal, just like they did with oil back when oil hit $147.   
      
   I don't think crash, but perhaps correct a little and then return to new   
   highs. If it dips below $1000 I might find myself buying some.   
      
   Oil will go right past $150/barrel onit's next wild swing.  Supply is   
   shrinking, consumption is neutral to expanding -- $80 is guaranteed.   
   And if a recovery happened, $200/barrel in under 5 years is realistic.   
   I call it black gold.   
      
   A couple of reasons why I don't put much credence to a recovery as with   
   the job losses, with the lower quality of jobs people have to take,   
   incomes in NA are plumeting bad.  NA as an economic engine is shot,   
   esspecialy in Ontario/Quebec.  It will not recover in 20 years.  Migh   
   never unless you live for 100 years or more.  Better get used to it, the   
   NA debt bubble has burst.  Liberal banking built on massive never ending   
   bubble debt has broke.  Out currency isn't worth crap.   
      
   If you are investd in cash instruments right now, you are either nuts,   
   insane or getting some very bad advice.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)