XPost: ab.politics, bc.politics   
   From: Canuck57@nospam.com   
      
   2010 Predictions   
      
   A soft jobless recovery is due, as so far in the recession pricing   
   elasticity and consumption reductions have done well to contain   
   inflation. But this will no longer be true in 2010 as cost increases   
   will not quickly pass into the supply chain.   
      
   What jobs are created will be low pay and not many.  Government will say   
   less unemployment claims means recovery, but the reality is just more   
   will cease looking and EI benefits expired, not counted.   
      
   Government on a non-inflationary basis will brag about the recession   
   being over.  But adjusted for inflation, recession will remain in Canada   
   throughout 2010.  For eable, a GDP growth of 6% on a 12% inflation will   
   mean a 6% reduction inflation adjusted, thus the recession is in fact   
   still there.   
      
   GM will be after more taxpayers debt funding.  This will become critical   
   July forward as HST tax increases kick in and large HST taxable items.   
   But the double combination of much lower government revenues and   
   exapanding government debt, with many US congress and senators seeking   
   re-election, GM might yet again be in bankruptcy.  GM lost it's number   
   one spot in the world and in Canada in 2009, it will loose #1 spot in   
   the US in 2010.   
      
   Once HST hits BC and Ontario the economy will hickup for 3-8 months.   
   Part of the mini recovery will be due to early purchases of autos but   
   dry right up for the remained of the year.  Car, appliances and other   
   big ticket purhases will drop further creating a second downturn and end   
   the mini recovery.   
      
   Oil will go past $100USD/barrel to stay as the US dollar looses value.   
   This will be one of the items creating an inflationary curve in the US   
   forcing interest rates to rise befroe the end of 2010.  US debt will   
   grow even larger as congress, senate and Obama continue to spend out of   
   control.  A second financial crisis of currency stability will occur   
   starting with the USD but Canada can expect to be hit to a lesser degree.   
      
   China will increasingly be recogniged as the worlds new economic   
   superpower.  In fact, China will become more reluctant to accept USDs in   
   trade payement, favoring barter type deals for the resources it needs.   
      
   The US will become more protectionist, fueling inflation and a trade   
   war.  Unemployment in the US will continue to be high even though   
   unemplyment claims will drop. US real estate could pick up a little as   
   it is a good long term way to hedge inflation for those with cash.   
      
   Hard to tell what Ottawa will do with the loonies value on the market   
   and much depends on if an election is called.  If they let the CAD   
   float, inflation will be lower and interest rates will remain lower than   
   average for the G20 and most Canadians will do well with this.  But if   
   they devalue it to keep pace with the USD decline such as was seen in   
   2009, then expect inflation and higher interest rates long before 2010   
   year end.  Home owners, debtors note, watch your cash flow and lock in   
   for 5 years or more.  Don't wait until the rates go up so much it messes   
   up your cash flow.   
      
   Canada will exist 2010 with union strife.  As unions will want to see   
   inflationary increases in pay to match currency issues.   
      
   BC, Ontario and Quebec will all be forced to balance the budget or we   
   will see large provicincial credit defaults.  Ready for Ontario IOUs   
   like California?  Might just happen as McGuinty is broke. Cities like   
   Toronto, Vancouver and Winnipeg will also be city governments with   
   increaasingly negative financial issues.  Residents of these provinces   
   can expect provincial tax hikes if the premiers don't stem the   
   government wastes and debt growth.  In fact, if interest rates go up,   
   they could be in serious trouble.   
      
   For 2010, I wish I could put shorts on bonds and mortgage funds.   
   Seriously.  With such a low return for the lender, they can't go down   
   any more.  If they go up, then the fund values decrease.  Whatever, it a   
   bank says for you to be in mortgages, bonds, CD/GICs as a lender, they   
   are screwing you over.  This is the year not to lend people money no   
   mater how it is worded.  But note, when interest rates peek bonds and   
   mortgage funds are usually good investments, but not before.   
      
   2010 will be the year many will realize the real impact of the   
   recession, the depth of problems mega liberalized debt has caused. And   
   the fac that a quick recovery is like pigs flying over ottawa in January   
   at 30C.  Some will squat and whine for social assistance, others will   
   roll up their sleeves and count on themselves.   
      
   2010 emmigration pressures in Canada will keep home prices low.  Many   
   snow birds might migrate to Panama, US or Costa Rico not to return.   
   Lower immigration as Canada slides further down the economic scale.  Big   
   growth countries will be China, Brazil, Agentina, Peru and Columbia.   
      
   Government spending will shrink as the big wad was blown on banks and   
   GM/Chrysler and other disfunctional welfare corporations.  But none the   
   less will continue their inflationary practices.   
      
   Probability of Canadians having an election in the last half of 2010, I   
   would say is pretty high.  With HST driving people for early purchases a   
   mid-year mini-recovery, Conservatives will try to pass legislation the   
   Lib/NDiaPers wich Iggy's ego will suck in the bait.  Say September,   
   Ocotober or Novemebr is my guess.  Maybe sooner.  Ottawa wants a   
   majority as to be able to up the taxes.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)