XPost: can.politics, ont.politics, tor.general   
   From: "@nyet.ca   
      
   This is much like the last Alberta election for Premier . . .  the more   
   radical right wing party was beating a 'majority-is-ours' drum right up   
   until election day.   
   Then they got trumped, big time.   
      
   Looks like the voters in Ontario are taking Wynne's warnings to heart.   
   The polls are starting to shift away from Hudak and his job-cutting   
   agenda and promises.   
   ________________________________________   
   News / Ontario Election 2014 - Tuesday, June 10, 2014   
      
   Poll: Liberals take lead over Tories   
   Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals lead Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives as   
   Thursday’s election goes down to the wire, a new poll suggests.   
      
      
   Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals lead Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives as   
   Thursday’s election goes down to the wire, a new poll suggests.   
      
   The Forum Research survey conducted Monday found the Liberals at 42 per   
   cent, the Conservatives at 35 per cent and Andrea Horwath’s New   
   Democrats at 19 per cent. Mike Schreiner’s Greens were at 3 per cent.   
      
   Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned that the findings are within   
   the poll’s margin of error so the race could be tighter.   
   “It’s a very close election, but I would have to give a slight edge to   
   the Liberals,” Bozinoff said Tuesday.   
      
   Using interactive voice-response phone calls, Forum surveyed 739 people   
   across Ontario on Monday with results considered accurate to within four   
   percentage points, 19 times out of 20.   
      
   That means the Liberals and the Conservatives could be considered in a   
   statistical dead heat with the Grits potentially as low as 38 per cent   
   and the Tories as high as 39 per cent.   
      
   In last week’s poll, the Liberals had 39 per cent to 37 per cent for the   
   Conservatives while the New Democrats were at 17 per cent and the Greens   
   were at 6 per cent.   
      
   Bozinoff said several factors appear to be fuelling changes since then,   
   including a blitz of attack ads on television and radio and in   
   newspapers and online.   
      
   “These ads are getting pretty intense so they may be having an impact,”   
   he said, referring to the onslaught of party commercials and   
   union-funded spots deriding Hudak, including full-page ads in most   
   Ontario dailies.   
      
   Another emerging theme is that Green voters seem to be flocking to the   
   Liberals.   
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   “There’s no more parking of votes.  People have now decided where   
   they’re going and all those Green ‘parkers’ are going to vote Liberal,   
   because if you’re going to vote strategically you have to vote for the   
   party you think is going to win,” said Bozinoff.   
      
   Forum also found 37 per cent of people who voted NDP in the 2011   
   election plan to cast Liberal ballots this time with 51 per cent   
   remaining onside.   
      
   “The NDP have been doing a bad job keeping their supporters that’s for   
   sure.”   
      
   While Bozinoff extrapolated this week’s regional results to project a   
   Liberal majority of 61 seats in the 107-member legislature to 35 Tory   
   and 11 NDP, he suspected Thursday could be more of a cliffhanger.   
      
   “There are a lot of tight races that are too close to call,” the   
   pollster emphasized.   
      
   At dissolution last month, the minority Liberals held 48 seats,   
   including the speaker, the Tories had 37, the NDP 21, and there was one   
   vacancy.   
      
   In Kingston, Wynne said she’s not taking her foot off the pedal on the   
   campaign given the polling.   
      
   “We’ll see on Thursday. What I’m doing is I’m stating a reality.   
   We’re   
   in a tied race right now . . . there may be people who think, ‘You know,   
   I can vote NDP and the Liberals will win and it’ll be okay,’” she said   
   at St. Lawrence College.   
      
   “This race is so close that we need their vote. They cannot assume that   
   Tim Hudak’s plan is so crazy and so wrong-headed that it’s impossible   
   for him to get elected.  It is possible for him to get elected.”   
      
   A senior Liberal strategist said their own tracking also shows a “tight”   
   result.   
      
   “We’ve recovered from the dip we had at the end of last week. It looks   
   like it’s close to being tied when you look at the regional breakdowns,”   
   the insider said on condition of anonymity, adding it appears the Tories   
   have limited room for growth.   
      
   Hudak was circumspect when asked about polling just behind the Liberals   
   going into the final days of the campaign.   
   “There is a crystal clear difference from day one of the campaign to   
   today. It has become even more accentuated,” he told reporters in   
   Richmond Hill.   
   “Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals are spending the last few days of the   
   campaign, campaigning on fear and anger and I’m talking about hope and   
   opportunity and a better Ontario.”   
      
   While Horwath had spoken in recent days about growing momentum, she   
   conceded the challenge now is to ensure NDP backers don’t get cold feet   
   because of Liberal pleas.   
      
   “The next couple of days is about staying energetic, it’s about making   
   (sure) we are encouraging all those people that have said they are going   
   to support us to actually take it to the final moment, which is putting   
   that ballot in the ballot box,” she said Tuesday during a campaign stop   
   in Essex.   
      
   Later in London, Horwath said low turn out at the advance polls suggests   
   voters are taking their time with their ballot choice.   
      
   Privately, NDP officials insist many voters appear undecided, setting   
   the stage for an election they say will be “wild” with the outcome   
   likely not known until late into the evening.   
      
   Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region, and other   
   variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according   
   to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with   
   the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of   
   Toronto’s political science department’s data library.   
      
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