XPost: can.politics, bc.politics, ab.politics   
   XPost: sk.politics, man.politics, mtl.general   
   From: Panca@nyet.ca   
      
   Mulcair could be the first NDP prime minister, if he can convince   
   non-progressives   
      
   Bruce Anderson   
   Special to The Globe and Mail - Thursday, Nov. 20 2014   
      
      
   Tom Mulcair is one of more talented and interesting politicians I’ve met.   
      
   Politics can come down to a battle of “head versus heart” choices. But Mr.   
   Mulcair doesn’t want you to choose one or the other. He’s part wonk who   
   loves   
   the big policy questions. But he’s also got feelings, which, refreshingly, he   
   doesn’t try to conceal.   
      
   The NDP Leader is not the least bit naïve; he knows he’s got challenges.    
   But   
   he’s also got the confidence needed to get up in the morning and do what it   
   takes to lead a party.  On many days, that’s about walking off the sprains   
   and   
   bruises, and not letting the other guys see you sweat.   
      
   The next 11 months may be the most important ones in the history of the New   
   Democratic Party.  They stand across the aisle from a government that can be   
   beaten.   
   On paper the NDP have a better chance of winning than they ever have.   
   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^   
      
   They’ve got money, a seasoned and able front bench, and they aren’t   
   handicapped   
   by a huge federal deficit, which so often makes their appealing promises look   
   like unaffordable hazards.   
      
   But for all that, optimism is guarded in NDP ranks.   
      
   In one sense, the NDP path to victory is not that complicated: voters grow   
   wearier of the Conservatives and warier about Justin Trudeau.   
      
                          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^   
   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^   
      
   But months are passing with scant evidence that this is happening. And time is   
   growing shorter. What, if anything, can the NDP do to disrupt the flow and   
   start to see some growth in public support again?   
      
   First, the NDP problem is not a Tom Mulcair problem.  His Ottawa critics may   
   point out his weaknesses, but our polls show he’s quite well regarded across   
   the country.  More than enough voters like his values, his ideas, his judgment   
   and his attitude.   He outpolls Stephen Harper on all these characteristics.   
      
   Instead, the challenge facing New Democrats comes down to this:   
      
   When we ask which party is likely to win the next election, only 7 per cent   
   believe that will be the NDP. This may be the lowest number ever in terms of   
   voters expecting that the party serving as Official Opposition will become the   
   governing party (other than the Bloc Québécois in the 1990s).  For every   
   voter   
   that thinks the NDP will win, five think the Liberals will.   
      
   This week’s by-election in Whitby-Oshawa triggered another wave of   
   speculation   
   about strategic voting and the risk it poses to the NDP.  In that riding, the   
   NDP lost a huge share of their vote, and Liberal support spiked.  This follows   
   similar setbacks in other by-elections.   
      
   Strategic voting is a clear and present danger for the NDP.   In Quebec, the   
   Liberals currently poll at 31 per cent, a few points behind the NDP.   
   However another 19 per cent say their first choice isn’t Liberal, but they   
   will   
   vote for whichever party looks most able to beat the Conservatives, and they   
   believe that will be the Liberal Party.   
   Among francophone voters, 22 per cent fall into this category.  Why?  They want   
   a more progressive government in Ottawa.   
      
   The NDP have been at pains to paint themselves as the party for true   
   progressives – a party that dreams the dreams of the left, and faithful to   
   the   
   causes most dear to their hearts.   
      
   It’s a strategy with some merit, but risks too.   
      
   Every hour the NDP spend talking about their big child care proposal warms the   
   heart of progressive and a lot of centrist voters too.   
      
   But it also means another hour not spent addressing the quiet doubts that some   
   voters harbour about NDP economic instincts.  Talking about building a truly   
   sustainable economy and increasing taxes but only on business doesn’t help,   
   it   
   can make matters worse.  Most voters on the centre don’t really fear the NDP   
   as   
   much as lack confidence they would take a balanced approach.   
      
   In contrast, even if those same voters never hear what the Liberals have in   
   mind in terms of economic policy, they’ll imagine its not going to be   
   radical.   
     In Canada, the market for radical is pretty, pretty small.   
      
   None of this, I’m sure, is lost on Tom Mulcair.  Chances are he has a plan.   
   Step 1: bond with and build enthusiasm on the left.   
   Step 2: do what’s necessary to convince voters you can win, which starts with   
   making clear that you won’t upset what’s working in our economy.   
      
   If such a plan is going to work, Step 2 needs to start soon.   
   _____________________________________   
      
        Trudeau’s handling of protesters a sharp contrast with Harper   
        Del Mastro tried to treat courts as he did his political opponents   
        Bruce Anderson Are Harper’s tax cuts enough to convince voters to go   
   Conservative?   
      
   		Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data, a regular member   
   of CBC The National’s “At Issue” panel and a founding partner of i2   
   Ideas and   
   Issues Advertising. He has done polls for Liberal and Conservative politicians   
   in the past, but no longer does any partisan work. Other members of his family   
   have worked for Conservative and Liberal politicians, and a daughter currently   
   works for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. He writes a weekly digital column for   
   The Globe and Mail.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)