XPost: can.politics, bc.politics, ab.politics   
   XPost: sk.politics, man.politics, mtl.general   
   From: Panca@nyet.ca   
      
   Frank Graves is from EKOS Research.  This is BIG growth in support for a   
   coalition government in Canada.  Many European countries have had them for   
   years.   
   Time we got some more proportionate representation of parties in Canada's   
   government.   
   ___________________________________________   
   Frank Graves | Dec 15, 2014   
      
   Q:  If you were forced to choose between a Conservative minority government led   
   by Stephen Harper and a coalition government made up of Liberals and New   
   Democrats and led by Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, which would you prefer?   
   		Coalition government:         60%   
                    Conservative government:   40%   
   _________________________________________________   
      
   Can you say C-O-A-L-I-T-I-O-N?   
      
   A new ‘new normal’ appears to be taking hold of the federal political   
   landscape   
   heading into an election year.   
      
   With unexpected events having led to a renewed focus on security, coupled with   
   some economic tumult, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have surged back into   
   contention and, for the moment, are in a virtual deadlock with the Liberals.   
      
   In little more than a month, Harper has gone from facing the real possibility   
   of falling from PM to leader of the third party to being within reach now of   
   forming a fourth government. Not only has he wiped out virtually all of Justin   
   Trudeau’s double-digit lead, he also has managed to raise his own approval   
   numbers.   
      
   Does this suggest Harper will win in the fall (or perhaps earlier)? Not yet. In   
   fact, it may be the case that a divided electorate doesn’t see any   
   conventional   
   political solution to being caught between a government of the right — which   
   increasingly is out of touch with the values and attitudes of Canadians —   
   and a   
   fragmented centre-left.   
      
   The structural factors of a progressive wave, a dark outlook for a shrinking   
   and pessimistic middle class and a deep mistrust of democracy and public   
   institutions as expressed by incumbent governance style — none of these   
   factors   
   have gone away. In fact, they clearly continue to fester.   
      
   It’s also reasonable to expect that the effects of the heightened security   
   concerns that have bolstered Harper over the past six weeks could fade just as   
   quickly, leaving more challenging structural forces once again forming a   
   significant barrier to another Harper victory. The steep decline in oil prices   
   also undermines the Conservatives’ plans to turn swollen surpluses into   
   targeted tax-and-spend goodies in an election year.   
      
   Moreover, there is evidence that a public weary of the current government is   
   moving towards a new solution. The spectre of a coalition government that was   
   used effectively to strengthen Harper’s fortunes in 2011 no longer seems to   
   worry Canadians nearly as much. By a very large margin, the public now favours   
   a Justin-Trudeau-led coalition over most other outcomes. This is markedly   
   different from the divided views of 2011.   
      
   The parties will all insist that they are running to win and that planning for   
   a coalition is a bad idea — but for a majority of Canadian voters, this may   
   be   
   emerging as the best solution. Coalitions may be terra incognita for Canadian   
   federal politics but they are widely accepted in Europe and elsewhere. The   
   diverse values and interests of an increasingly pluralistic citizenry aren’t   
   fitting readily into the older party systems — and a coalition may well be   
   the   
   preferred destination for the public.   
      
   Demographic Patterns Revealing   
      
   Harper appears to be re-assembling the same constituency that gave the   
   Conservatives their majority government in 2011. Older voters are gradually   
   returning to their traditional comfort zone, and Harper has restored his strong   
   lead with men. He is also regaining ground with new Canadians, a group that had   
   been steadily leaking to the Liberals since Trudeau emerged as party leader.   
      
   The Liberals, in contrast, continue to underperform in polls with men. This   
   weakness is not new, but has grown over the past two months since the shooting   
   events on Parliament Hill. If the Liberals are to break out, they must find a   
   way to strengthen their standing with men.   
      
   Regionally, the Liberals are by far and away the most “pan-Canadian”   
   party, as   
   they hold at least some support in nearly every region of the country. They are   
   also highly competitive in Manitoba, which was clearly not the case in 2011.   
   Support for the Conservatives remains heavily centered in Alberta and   
   Saskatchewan, although they have shown new life in Ontario (outside of   
   Toronto), which will be key to any election victory in 2015. The NDP continues   
   to do well in Quebec.   
      
   Approval Numbers Uncover Hidden Strengths for Trudeau/Mulcair   
      
   Despite a relative deadlock in voter intention, there is good news to be found   
   for Trudeau in his approval figures. He leads in terms of approval and,   
   interestingly, he does extremely well with undecided voters.   
      
   Mulcair, meanwhile, is best able to transcend partisan lines and he does fairly   
   well outside of NDP supporters, which may uniquely position him to hold the   
   balance of power in the event of a coalition government.   
      
   Harper remains in a distant third place; however, he has enjoyed a noticeable   
   uptick in approval over the past few months.   
      
   Likelihood of Voting Raises Possibility of Liberal-NDP Coalition   
      
   In our latest poll, in addition to our conventional ballot question (“Which   
   party would you vote for?”), we asked respondents to rate the likelihood that   
   they would vote for each of the three main parties on a 7-point scale, where 1   
   indicates a 0 per cent chance of voting for the party in question, 7 indicates   
   a 100 per cent chance, and the midpoint, 4, indicates a 50/50 chance. The   
   results are revealing and somewhat different from what we see with the   
   conventional ballot question.   
      
   The Liberals appear to have a slight – but statiscally significant – edge   
   in   
   this area, as Canadians of all political stripes express somewhat more openness   
   to voting Liberal. Conservative supporters have taken more of a “my way or   
   the   
   highway” stance and are widely closed off to voting either Liberal or NDP.   
   Conversely, other party supporters have widely ruled out voting Conservative.   
      
   Liberal and NDP supporters, meanwhile, have expressed a tepid willingness to   
   consider each other, suggesting that a Liberal-NDP coalition may be feasible   
   should the Conservatives pull off a minority win in 2015. Indeed, unlike in   
   2011, it appears now that Liberals and NDP supporters are equally likely to say   
   they are certain to be voting. The rise of greater commitment to vote in the   
   centre-left is also coupled with a sharp rise in support for a Liberal-led   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)