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   XPost: mtl.general   
      
     CBC News Posted: Apr 21, 2015   
      
      
   Budget 2015: 6 elements to watch for   
      
   [- - - ]   
      
   1. How big will the 2015-16 surplus be?   
      
   The Conservatives have been promising to balance the budget since the 2011   
   election, and recently announced they'll introduce balanced budget legislation.   
     Their critics say this is to distract from the fact that the government   
   hasn't had a balanced budget since 2007.   
      
   The projections tabled in last year's budget (a $6.4 billion surplus) and last   
   fall's economic update ($1.9 billion) were based on higher revenues from more   
   expensive oil prices, which dropped from around $110 a barrel last summer to   
   under $50 in January (the surplus projected in the economic update was also   
   lower after the Conservatives announced some expanded tax cuts and credits).   
      
   The big question today is whether the government has any fiscal room to   
   manoeuvre following the tax cuts that were announced last October and the   
   subsequent plunge in oil prices.   
      
      
   2. Did the government use its contingency?   
      
   Following months of plummeting oil prices, TD Economics has predicted a   
   $2.3-billion deficit for this year's federal budget.  But the government still   
   has a $3-billion contingency fund into which it could dip.  Conservatives   
   haven't been clear on whether cheap oil is an acceptable reason to use the   
   contingency fund.   
      
      
   3. Which boutique tax cuts will it contain?   
      
   In the past, the Conservatives have targeted voters with credits for items like   
   tools, first-time charitable donations, children's sports and more. With   
   Canadians going to the polls at most six months from now, it will be worth   
   watching whether there are more to come.   
      
   One change that would be popular with seniors, who are more likely to cast   
   ballots than younger Canadians, would be to ease the withdrawal rules for   
   registered retirement income funds, or RRIFs.  The current rules require   
   seniors to withdraw a certain amount every year by age 71, but seniors'   
   advocacy groups like CARP say Canadians are living longer, while returns on   
   investments are lower than for generations past.   
      
   "The government should not be making it more difficult by forcing people to   
   erode their savings and taxing them just when they should be trying to grow   
   their savings for their later years, when they could face serious expenses for   
   medical care and other challenges," said Susan Eng, a spokeswoman for CARP.   
      
      
   4. What will the budget hold for business?   
      
   A spokesman for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business told The   
   Canadian Press he is cautiously optimistic the government will lower the small   
   business corporate tax rate.  Dan Kelly said the organization would like it   
   lowered to nine per cent from 11 per cent.   
      
   A spokesman for the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters is equally optimistic   
   the government will continue its accelerated write-off for manufacturing   
   machinery, he told The Canadian Press.   
      
      
   5. Will there be new money for security?   
      
   During a year in which Prime Minister Stephen Harper and others have referred   
   repeatedly to the threat of terrorism, it might be a good bet that any new   
   spending could be directed to national security.   
      
   Seniors are living longer, leading advocates to ask for fewer restrictions on   
   registered retirement income funds. (Darren Calabrese/Canadian Press)   
      
   CBC News has learned the government will provide additional resources to the   
   RCMP, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) and the Canada Border   
   Services Agency to be put toward investigative resources.   
      
   Employment Minister Pierre Poilievre, the cabinet minister whom the government   
   provided for interviews ahead of the budget, said the Conservatives are "taking   
   a close look" at the budgets of security agencies.   
      
   "We have an expanded effort to fight terrorism," Poilievre said.   
      
   "All of these things require resources and the prime minister is absolutely   
   determined to degrade and defeat terrorism, to keep Canadians safe."   
      
      
   6. Will there be money for foreign policy?   
      
   International Co-operation Minister Christian Paradis has spoken frequently   
   over the past few months about the need for a development finance institution,   
   a lending agency that would help private interests take on investments in   
   less-developed countries, which tend to be riskier.   
      
   While Canada has committed billions to improving the health of women and   
   children in developing countries, its overall official development assistance,   
   or ODA, has dropped to 0.27 per cent of gross national income, from its 10-year   
   high of 0.34 per cent in 2010 (it also hit that level in 2005).   
      
   Leveraging private-sector investment would be a way to increase the amount of   
   money going to developing countries without spending much more.   
      
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