The Hill Times - Jul. 15, 2019   
      
   Conservatives and Scheer falling behind in Ontario, suggests Campaign Research   
   poll   
      
   The Liberal Party has gained an advantage of seven percentage points over the   
   federal Conservatives in the province of Ontario, according to a recent online   
   poll by Campaign Research, reversing the lead the official opposition had in   
   the province from    
   last month, and helping the Grits to take their first lead over the Tories   
   nationwide—by a hair—in polls by the firm since February 2018.   
      
   The poll taken between July 9 and 12 indicated the Liberals were picking up   
   momentum nationally on a number of questions, including job approval, voter   
   preference, and preferred prime minister, but they’re still neck and neck   
   with the Conservatives    
   overall.   
      
   Meanwhile, the Green Party and NDP also polled in a dead heat for third choice   
   among potential voters in the poll, which canvassed 1,896 randomly selected   
   Canadian adults who were members of Maru/Blue’s online panel, and said they   
   were eligible to vote.   
      
   The Liberals polled as the preferred party for 33 per cent of decided voters   
   nationally, compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives, and 14 per cent for   
   both the Greens and NDP.  The one-point lead is the first for the Liberals in   
   more than a year of    
   polls by Campaign Research.  It is the closest the Liberals and Conservatives   
   have polled in the firm’s figures since March, the month after the   
   SNC-Lavalin scandal broke, when the Tories held a six-point lead over the   
   Grits, 36 to 30.   
      
   The latest four-week rolling poll by Nanos Research, released July 5, had the   
   Liberals with a four-point lead over the Conservatives, with 34.7 per cent   
   support to 30.4 per cent for the Grits.   
      
   In Ontario, the Conservatives were the choice of 31 per cent of respondents to   
   the Campaign Research poll earlier this month, down from 36 per cent last   
   month. The Liberals rose to 38 per cent support in the province this month,   
   from 34 per cent last    
   month.   
      
   Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s (Regina-Qu’Appelle, Sask.) personal   
   approval rating also fell by eight percentage points, compared to last month   
   in Canada’s most populous province, from 30 to 22 per cent.   His nationwide   
   approval rating    
   dropped six points to 26 per cent, down from 32 per cent last month.   
      
   Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) approval rating, meanwhile,   
   nudged upward to 37 per cent in Ontario this month, up from 33 per cent in the   
   province last month.   Nationally, Mr. Trudeau’s approval rose to 34 per   
   cent, the highest it    
   has been since February, but considerably lower than the 41 per cent approval   
   score for the prime minister last June.   
      
   Mr. Trudeau’s disapproval score continued to slowly decline from the 58 per   
   cent high registered in March, as the SNC-Lavalin scandal intensified, down to   
   52 per cent this month.  Mr. Scheer’s disapproval rating stood at 43 per   
   cent in the latest    
   poll, up sharply from 31 per cent in May, and 36 per cent in March.   
      
   Mr. Trudeau took a slight lead over Mr. Scheer on the question of who would   
   make the best prime minister, edging ahead to a 24 per cent score, over Mr.   
   Scheer’s 20 per cent.  The two leaders have been deadlocked in Campaign   
   Research polls on that    
   question since March.   
      
   The Green Party has slowly trended upward in Campaign Research polls since   
   February, from seven per cent support that month, to this month’s 14 per   
   cent score.   Leader Elizabeth May (Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C.) has the best   
   approval score, at 38 per    
   cent, and lowest disapproval score, at 18 per cent, of all the party leaders,   
   but sits well back of Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Scheer on the question of who would   
   make the best prime minister, with a score of nine per cent.   
      
   NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (Burnaby South, B.C.) was selected as the preferred   
   prime minister by seven per cent of respondents to the poll. He also had a   
   lower approval and disapproval rating than either Mr. Scheer or Mr. Trudeau,   
   with a 22 per cent    
   approval score and a 32 per cent disapproval score.   
      
      
      
   Online polls are not considered to be truly random and cannot be assigned a   
   margin of error. A random poll with the same sample size would have a margin   
   of error of 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, according to Campaign   
   Research, a firm led by    
   pollster and CEO Eli Yufest, as well as Conservative strategists Nick Kouvalis   
   and Richard Ciano.   
      
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