From: rcp27g@gmail.com

Adam H. Kerman  wrote:
> bob  wrote:
>> Adam H. Kerman  wrote:
>
>>> If the nations of the world didn't have "buy domestic" laws and the
>>> United States didn't have excessive buff strength requirements that
>>> effectively freeze out European train sets? What's the
>>> point in speculating.
>
>> How long have you got and how much money are you willing to pay? These
>> trains are not a clean sheet new design, they are built on decades of
>> experience within Alstom of both the TGV and Pendolino platforms. The cost
>> of reproducing all of that experience in order to actually design these
>> trains in the US would be astronomical if it can then only be used to sell
>> a once-in-20-years NEC equipment order. There is a good reason why, if you
>> want a 200 mph capable tilting train there are basically only three
>> suppliers in the world who can meet the requirement. There simply isn't
>> enough demand to support more. It's the same reason why there are only two
>> global suppliers of 200+ seat airframes, three suppliers for their engines
>> and so on.
>
> That's very well put.
>
> I disagree a little:
>
> One of the reasons that the domestic market died is that, when rolling
> stock was ordered by private transit companies and railroads, they spread
> the business around to ensure that they'd never unintentionally create a
> sole-supplier situation. They were also willing to place smaller orders.

That might hold water for <100 mph regional and commuter rail, subway and
LRV type vehicles, the case we're looking at here is high speed intercity
railway vehicles. There has simply never been a meaningful market for this
kind of product in the US since the 1950s.

> I disagree about your airframe comment entirely. Airbus is the result
> of domestic protection laws of various European countries. The supply
> marketplace has been so thoroughly interfered with we have no idea
> what would exist.
>
> I don't think there's much of a market for those huge planes at all. One
> of the new runways at Chicago O'Hare was built to land those things, paid
> for entirely by taxes and surcharges on airline passengers flying on
> planes that had no trouble landing on runways sized for the jet age
> in the 1960s.

200+ seats covers pretty much the whole twin-aisle market, including
aircraft like the A330 and 777 (and some larger 767 variants). If you
include anything >200 seats, there is a pretty big market.

Robin

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