From: don.p.del.grande@gmail.com   
      
   > He won California by 5,104,121.    
   >    
   > He won New York by 1,992,889.    
   >    
   > That is 7,097,010, or about 37,484 votes more than by which he won the   
   popular vote. (Same aggregating source)    
   >    
   > CA and NY total 84 of the 306 electoral votes. Outside those two states,   
   Trump wins both the popular and electoral vote.    
      
   In fact, before Biden in 2020, the last President who would have lost had   
   California gone the other way was...Woodrow Wilson in 1916.   
      
   However, California and New York DO count, so your claim that Trump will win   
   if a poll shows Biden ahead nationally by 5% does not make sense - especially   
   as we know nothing about how the polled voters are distributed. You cannot   
   make the assumption that    
   every state outside of CA and NY will break the same way - which is pretty   
   much exactly what you did.   
      
   On the other hand, a Harvard-Harris poll conducted three days later, and with   
   more registered voters, has Trump ahead by 5% (45-40). Like I said, the only   
   polls that matter are the 51 taken on election day...and even then, if the   
   Republicans can get 218    
   in the House and 51 in the Senate, we could have another 1876 on our hands.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)