From: mianderson79@gmail.com   
      
   because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the play   
   before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).   
      
   There is *no way* that is right.  The chance of alabama(or any offense)   
   converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far   
   higher than 1 out of 1000.  Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better   
   chance than that, and this    
   was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.   
      
   I don't know what the exact percentages are, but I would say Alabama(or really   
   most teams in that situation) convert that 4th and 30 about 3-4% of the   
   time......so obviously poor, but nowhere near as poor as this 0.1% nonsense.     
      
   And since in this case converting the 4th and goal at the 30 is going to   
   closely track winning(just lagging a little behind since a small percent of   
   the time the team then down 3 could come back), espn is off by a factor of   
   about 30x lol.....   
      
   I just don't see how they got 0.1%.....I was surprised watching the play of   
   course, but not 1/1000 surprised.   But trying to score on 4th and goal from   
   the 30 is certainly not a 1/1000 hope........   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)