From: mianderson79@gmail.com   
      
   On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:54:32 PM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:   
   > 1) Barring two specific teams winning in late games (Cal is up 6-0 on UCLA   
   early 2nd), the two transitioning ineligibles may be needed after all.    
   >    
   > 2) Conference title games:    
   >    
   > Pac-12: Washington-Oregon (Friday 5 PM Pacific, Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium,   
   ABC)    
   >    
   > Big XII: Oklahoma State-Texas (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, AT&T Stadium, ABC)    
   >    
   > SEC: Alabama-Georgia. (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in   
   Atlanta, CBS)    
   >    
   > ACC: Florida State-Louisville (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Bank of America   
   Stadium in Charlotte, NC, ABC)    
   >    
   > Big Ten: Iowa-Michigan (Saturday 5 PM Pacific, Lucas Oil Stadium in   
   Indianapolis, IN, FOX)    
   >    
   > ***************    
   >    
   > American Athletic: SMU at Tulane (Saturday, 1 PM Pacific, ABC)    
   >    
   > Conference USA: New Mexico State at Liberty (Friday 4 PM Pacific, CBS Sports   
   Network)    
   >    
   > MAC: Miami (OH)-Toledo (Saturday 9 AM Pacific, Ford Field in Detroit, ESPN)    
   >    
   > Sun Belt: Appalachian State at Troy (Saturday 1 PM Pacific, ESPN)    
   >    
   > Mountain West: 12 PM Pacific on FOX, opponents and site to be determined   
   between San Jose State, Boise State, and UNLV by a four-computer composite   
   after all regular-season games finish tonight.    
   >    
   > 3) CFP...    
   >    
   > Start with the easy part: Tulane beats SMU, they go as the Go5. If they   
   lose, Liberty goes if they beat New Mexico State. After that...    
   >    
   > We still do have the potential for four undefeated conference champions in   
   the Power Five: Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. If all four win,   
   there would almost certainly have to be your four.    
   >    
   > If not...    
   >    
   > Alabama beats Georgia: That would probably be the largest potential to screw   
   an undefeated Florida State. FSU certainly did NOT turn heads in beating   
   Florida tonight, so that might well get a situation where both Alabama and   
   Georgia get in.    
   >    
   > Iowa beats Michigan: Oof. That would probably be the "worst" loss of the   
   four, and would make for a decent case to get Michigan out. And especially if   
   Alabama beats Georgia, that could open the door, say, for all sorts of Top   
   Four chaos, including    
   Texas getting involved if they win.    
   >    
   > Louisville beats Florida State: FSU is eliminated, period-end. They may be   
   ANYWAY if they slog through Louisville and don't do more than just win (would   
   the Committee think, for example, a one-loss Ohio State or even Georgia would   
   be better than this    
   FSU team with the new QB?)    
      
   No....if FSU beats Louisville, regardless of how unimpressive, they get a   
   spot.  The fact that tOSU would be favored or looks better is not going to be   
   relevant.  They'd be a 13-0 conference champion with enough decent wins that   
   you couldn't keep them    
   out, even if nobody really believes they are one of the top 4 teams in the   
   country.   
      
   Here is how things break down and it's very simple:   
      
   -Michigan is going to easily beat Iowa and get in.  Thinking about whether or   
   not michigan would get in without beating iowa is silly because Iowa is   
   terrible.   
   -The georgia/Bama winner is in(Georgia #1 overall likely if they win).  As for   
   1 loss champion bama v 1 loss champion texas, yes Texas fans are going to   
   complain and maybe they have a point.  but the reality is that the win over   
   georgia would just be too    
   big.  You beat the two time defending champ who has won 29 straight and is   
   #1......that win is so huge it overcomes any hth deficit.  But georgia is   
   likely to win and probably easily(since alabama isn't very good)   
   -The washington/oregon winner is also in.  probably oregon.  And the loser is   
   obviously out.     
      
   So right there that's three spots-  Michigan, the georgia/bama winner(likely   
   georgia), and the oregon/washington winner(likely oregon)   
      
   That leaves one spot between FSU, Texas, and tOSU.  Here is how that will be   
   awarded:   
   -if FSU beats Lville, they are in and get the spot.     
      
   -If FSU loses, they are out and then Texas is next up.  If Texas wins the   
   big12 championship game and FSU loses to Lville, Texas gets the last spot.     
      
   -That means the only scenario by which OHio state backdoors in is that FSU has   
   to lose and Texas has to lose.  Both of these things *could* happen, and I   
   would actually say there is a good chance of 1/2 happening.  But I'd put the   
   odds at both happening    
   at about 15-18%.  So tosu still has a little hope, but out of the teams in the   
   mix now they need the most help.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)