From: mianderson79@gmail.com   
      
   On Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 12:32:54 AM UTC-6, Michael Falkner wrote:   
   > On Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 10:28:19 PM UTC-8, michael anderson   
   wrote:    
   > > because it is saying Alabama had a 0.1% chance to win(presumably on the   
   play before the 4th down pass for a touchdown).    
   > >    
   > > There is *no way* that is right. The chance of alabama(or any offense)   
   converting 4th and goal from the 30 yard line is obviously poor, but it's far   
   higher than 1 out of 1000. Even true 50 yard hail marys have a much better   
   chance than that, and this    
   was 20 yards closer and just a long pass and not a hail mary.   
   > Remember, though, mia -- that's to win the game.    
   >    
   > To do that, Alabama must:    
   >    
   > * convert 4th and goal from the 31    
   > * and THEN prevent Auburn from getting a quick tying score and Auburn wins   
   in OT or a quick Auburn winning score    
      
   but there were 25 seconds left after the kickoff, and auburn had either 1 or 0   
   timeout(oh yeah and their offense sucks).   
      
   You can't possibly give Auburn more than a 15 percent chance to get a fg   
   there, and then even if you give them a 15% chance to get a fg,  that means   
   you're giving them a 7.5% chance to win the game with OT(which again is overly   
   generous because the 6 win    
   team doesn't have a 50% chance in OT against a highly ranked team).....so   
   basically you can see that Alabama converting 4th and goal and Alabama winning   
   are going to be pretty darn close/track fairly closely.  If there were like   
   1:00 left or so, that    
   would affect the numbers more and they wouldn't track so closely.....   
      
      
   >    
   > I think <0.1% is actually correct here.    
      
   No it can't be.....since as I said above we know true hail marys are much more   
   likely to be completed than that, and this was much easier/more likely than a   
   true hail mary.  Even if you give Auburn a ridiculous 15% chance to win the   
   game *after* the    
   converted 4th and 30(which is at least two times to high), that means for the   
   0.1% to be right the chance of alabama converting that fourth and 30 still   
   rounds to 1/1000.......which again is just not realistic.     
      
   If they play that 4th and goal at the 30 one hundred times, I bet Alabama   
   converts 3 or 4 of them each set of 100.  Keep in mind you may even get a few   
   PI's and then they move the ball up for a higher percentage try as well(which   
   all goes into the    
   percentages)......   
      
   But the idea that they are only going to convert a 30 yard pass play roughly   
   one out of 1000 times?  Lmao no way.......if people believe that they don't   
   conceptually get how rare 1/1000 is.     
      
      
      
      
   >    
   > Mike   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)