From: james.m.gibson@gmail.com   
      
   It's clear at this point that if the 4 undefeated P5 teams win, that's your   
   CFP.  Easy enough.  What if the defeated teams knock them off their perch?   
      
   Oregon / Washington - with Washington ranked 3rd and Oregon ranked 5th, it   
   appears that the winner of this game should claim one slot in the CFP.    
   Oregon's only loss would then be by 3 on the road to a team that it then beat   
   at a neutral site and gave    
   its only loss to.  I don't think a split should keep you out, so Oregon would   
   be treated almost like an undefeated team.   
      
   Alabama / Georgia - This is where it could get really interesting.  Auburn   
   could have solved this problem by playing defense on Alabama last week.  But   
   here we are.  Alabama wins here, and HTH suggests Alabama would be ranked   
   above Georgia (both have one    
   loss with HTH as tiebreaker, which the committee seems to be keen on for teams   
   with the same record).  If Texas also wins, does that dictate Texas > Alabama   
   > Georgia?  No matter what you say about Alabama improving and maybe being   
   better than Texas now,    
   the fact is Texas went to Alabama and won by double digits, and that game has   
   to count (again if the teams have the same record.  If Texas loses to OK   
   State, then they won't need to be ranked above a 1-loss Alabama).   
      
   Iowa / Michigan - Michigan is currently #2, but a loss to Iowa, I think, would   
   knock them as far down as they could go but still be ahead of Ohio State based   
   on HTH.  If Georgia and Florida State win, and Oregon beats Washington, you   
   could have Michigan    
   just outside at #5 with both Oregon and Washington in the top 4.   
      
   Texas / Oklahoma State - For the sake of the top 4, the CFP might really like   
   Oklahoma State to pull this upset, because then it ends the whole Texas vs.   
   Alabama debate (if they both lose, I guess it would come up again but with   
   much fewer consequences).    
    OK State is not getting into the top 10, and I don't think Texas falls out of   
   the top 12 with a loss here, so unless other weird things happen, an OK State   
   win would have few consequences vs. how it's currently ranked.   
      
   Florida State / Louisville - Florida State needs this win to stay in the CFP.    
   I can't seem them dropping FSU beyond 4th as long as they win this game.  A   
   loss would send them tumbling, probably to the back of the line for 1-loss   
   teams but ahead of 2-   
   loss teams.  Looks like Louisville gets the Orange Bowl either way.   
      
   Tulane / SMU - Right now Tulane has the G5 slot in the NY6.  SMU win opens up   
   for either themselves, Liberty, or Toledo (which I hadn't noticed until   
   Michael Falkner pointed out were ranked in the coaches' poll).  Toledo is way   
   down (60th) in the Game    
   Control metric compared to any of Tulane, Liberty, or SMU (23rd through   
   25th).  And also behind in SOR, although not nearly as much.  I'm thinking   
   that among G5 teams, right now, it's pretty much: 1. Tulane, 2. Liberty, 3.   
   SMU.  So if Tulane wins, they    
   keep the slot.  If SMU wins, it depends on the Liberty result.   
      
   Liberty / NMSU - bring this up because of the above.  I think a Liberty win   
   and a Tulane loss will give the final NY6 slot to an undefeated Liberty team.    
   A loss would clearly knock them out.   
      
   The others, which include Boise State / UNLV, Toledo / Miami (OH), and   
   Appalachian State / Troy will have much less effect especially since bowls   
   stopped necessarily locking in their champion and just going to the one that   
   makes more sense regionally or    
   for TV.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)