From: chakatfirepaw@gmail.com   
      
   On Thu, 21 Jul 2016 08:11:37 -0700, Mikkel Haaheim wrote:   
      
   > Le mercredi 20 juillet 2016 23:04:00 UTC+2, Rick Pikul/Chakat Firepaw a   
   > écrit :   
   >   
   >> Remember that this is granting that all the observation platforms are   
   >> known.  Saying "that would make them easy to spot" isn't exactly a   
   >> counterargument.   
   >   
   > Yes. the initial assumption was that the locations of the platforms were   
   > known. This was followed by the suggestion that a slow repositioning   
   > will prevent them from being destroyed. This assumes that the target is   
   > not going to be where the attack hits, which means either the target   
   > "dodged the bullet" by moving out of the way faster than the attack   
   > could respond, or that the attack would be unaware of the change in   
   > position. The slowness of light sails means that the array would not be   
   > able to simply "dodge the bullet"... not when the "bullet" is capable of   
   > course correction. Using a light sail means that "not being there" is   
   > not going to work either, because you are hanging up a sign saying   
   > "please track me".   
      
   The instant your shot corrects to maintain an intercept you have just   
   fired the opening shot of the war and everyone knows it.   
      
   Also remember that the initial suggestion I was responding to was the use   
   of KKVs that would run cold.  That means even a small manoeuvre by the   
   target and they miss.   
      
   >> Given the ranges involved, your KKVs are going to have to go for a high   
   >> speed pass if you want to take out a platform in a relevant amount of   
   >> time.  This makes the manoeuvres far more costly in deltaV for the KKV.   
   >   
   > Invalid assumption. Careful planning is much more useful.   
      
   Slower, easier, intercepts means much much longer times in flight.  As in   
   multiple years.   
      
   At that point, your attack fails simply because of the new launches that   
   have occurred while you were waiting for your shots to hit.  (Two dozen   
   stations with a service life of 20 years means a launch about every 10   
   months.)   
      
   >> A constant low-g acceleration isn't going to be much of a problem to   
   >> compensate for with the sensors.  The "oh shit" rockets are going to   
   >> blind the platform for a few minutes/an hour but they only fire the   
   >> once to maximize the deltaV to intercept for the KKV.   
   >   
   > The constant g? No, not at all. Constant manoeuvering using the "oh   
   > shit" rockets to try to evade the TRACKING kill squad, however, will.   
      
   So if you assume something completely different from what I suggested....   
      
   > Do not assume that there will be a single warhead, and do not assume   
   > that someone is going to just use a sniper rifle... this is going to be   
   > a fleet of kill drones.   
      
   Well, there goes any thought of "surprise, your sensor net is down."   
      
   >> And if you miss more than a couple it will all have been for naught.   
   >   
   > Wrong. Military operations NEVER assume that all detectors have been   
   > dispatched from service. Military engagements don't require an enemy to   
   > be blind... but they WILL blind the enemy as much as possible to make   
   > responding more difficult.   
      
   You have given up strategic surprise and your fleets can still be tracked.   
      
   The moving goalposts are also noted.   
      
   >> One part of going to high alert is going to be launching backup sensor   
   >> platforms.  Sure, the coverage won't be as good but you also have the   
   >> same year+ lag time before they can be attacked, (especially if you   
   >> have managed to conceal the fact that your intelligence agency owns a   
   >> particular half-dozen asteroid refining ships[1]).   
   >   
   > Yes. Which is why strategic planners allow for contingencies. Sensor   
   > targeting is NOT a one-time-only operation.   
      
   You can't take out new sensors fast enough, your shots simply can't hit   
   them for months, if not years.   
      
   > And, yes, I myself have pointed out subterfuge as stealth. Honestly, the   
   > attacker will probably never have to launch most of those kill drones,   
   > because they will already have used subterfuge to arrange premature   
   > deaths for those platforms... or methods for disinformation (why destroy   
   > a useful asset if you can hack it instead?).   
      
   Hmmm, two people assuming espionage successes on a scale that the   
   Bircher's would expect.   
      
   >> Remember that interplanetary combat is s l o w .   
   >   
   > Yes it is... until you have everything htting at once. You have very   
   > long pause intervals where nothing happens, and then a few minutes or   
   > hours of pure adrenaline rush.   
      
   And in the time period between taking out a sensor net and being able to   
   actually do anything with that fact you are faced with a new net forming.   
      
   A new net that is going to start by focusing on all the places your fleet   
   could have gone in the brief period of sensor blindness you got.  That's   
   assuming you even got any.   
      
   >> And, TBH, you are almost certainly going to have your KKVs noticed long   
   >> before they hit.  That will result in a war footing, (and extra   
   >> sensors),   
   >> even before the existing ones die.   
   >   
   > Depends upon what you are hitting with... and what it looks like. Yes,   
   > they will probably be seen, but there is always the question of if they   
   > will be recognised for what they are. The Japanese fleet was spotted   
   > long before hitting Pearl Harbor. Just imagine if those zeros weren't   
   > mistaken for a training flight.   
      
   There is something on an intercept course for a sensor platform that's in   
   a polar orbit of the sun, we didn't send it and it's adjusting course to   
   maintain the intercept.  I wonder what it could possibly be?   
      
   Remember that these platforms are going to be way out in the middle of   
   nowhere, (orbitally speaking).  Things aren't going to 'just happen' to   
   be passing by them.   
      
   --   
   Chakat Firepaw - Inventor and Scientist (mad)   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)