XPost: sci.space.policy, sci.physics   
   From: fjmccall@gmail.com   
      
   Serigo  wrote:   
      
   >On 10/16/2016 5:48 PM, Vaughn Simon wrote:   
   >> On 10/16/2016 2:36 PM, jimp@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:   
   >>> So what's the plan for this colony on Mars, ship some number of large   
   >>> reactors in pieces and assemble on Mars or ship lots of prebuilt small   
   >>> reactors?   
   >>   
   >> When help is months or even years away, any single point of failure is   
   >> your enemy, and redundancy is your friend.   
   >   
   >agree!   
   >   
   >each item has a probability of failure associated with it.   
   >Call it Lambda   
   >   
   >assume  you have  99.99% relibility on all components, and  you have   
   >1000 components. the reliability of that system is only 90% ( 0.9999^1000 )   
   >   
   >but you have 100,000 componnents at a minimum...   
   >and with semi commertial components like Musk is proposing, you can get   
   >perhaps 99%   
   >which means your failure rate is greater than 99.999%   
   >   
      
   Congratulations.  I think you just demonstrated that our current   
   society on Earth cannot exist.  You must be terrified when you fly,   
   given the thousands and thousands of parts that make up an airplane.   
   Even automobiles can't possibly work!   
      
   You 'cleverly' left out the idea of MTBF.  Yes, EVERYTHING will fail   
   eventually.  But just how long that 'eventually' is is crucial to the   
   problem.   
      
      
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   "Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar   
    territory."   
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