From: jeanettescrooby@gmail.com   
      
   Greets,   
      
   A commonly held fact (or is it an assumption?) is that an ICBM or launch   
   vehicle launch is impossible to hide.   
      
   Is this actually true?   
      
   Granted any launch is going to involve lots of fire and flame, and a smokey   
   plume, and is certainly very hard to miss if you are standing in visual range   
   BUT what if you are launching from somewhere in the world where no one is   
   watching.   
      
   During the Cold War NATO and the Warsaw Pact monitored each other continually   
   with radar and satellites. But those are mostly collected in the Northern   
   hemisphere, and point toward the old enemy.   
      
   What if you tried to launch a second-hand ICBM retro-fitted with a new second   
   or third stage from somewhere in the South Pacific? No radar except civilian   
   air traffic control, and the occasional bit of regional power military that is   
   more concerned with    
   drug and human traffickers in ships than with a fast moving object that is   
   going to be 30km up in less than a minute. Even if the unexpected launch is   
   detected by civilian or military radar it will be out of range, and out of the   
   regular angles that the    
   radar is directed toward in a minute or two (or less if the launch is   
   semi-modern solid fueled ICBM - those things are made to go FAST). Local   
   authorities might be inclined to write off the radar report to a anomaly, or   
   machine fault. They will    
   definitely get suspicious if they start to pick up bits of debris from the   
   first stage out of the ocean down range.   
      
   If actually avoiding detection is impossible what about disguising the launch   
   or blinding the observers? Disguise your covert launch as a university   
   sounding rocket launch, and have the upper stage explode spectacularly while   
   the real rocket climbs out    
   of the atmosphere. To avoid radar detection have a few drones fly close to the   
   radar sources and drop Chaff during the critical moments of the launch. The   
   local military will DEFINITELY know they have been blinded but by the time the   
   Chaff stops falling    
   the LV will be gone.   
      
   What about air-launches like Pegasus, Virgin Galactic's Spaceship2 or   
   Stratolaunch? Are they just as easily detected as space-bound launches?   
   Admittedly the carrier plane is loitering in the same space as commercial air   
   traffic, and well within the range    
   of the watchful eye of military radar, but you can blind them at the right   
   moment from other aircraft closer to the radar source.    
      
   What have I missed?    
      
   Regards   
   Frank Scrooby   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)