-"Fiction always reflects the time in which it's written, not the time in   
   which it's set.  So what's the problem?"-   
      
   The same is true of Shakespearean criticism.   But that's not what it's   
   supposed to be about; it's supposed to be about Shakespeare in his own time   
   and place.  And it's true of historical nonfiction, academic or popular.     
      
   And:  some people, including me, read fiction set in the future hoping to find   
   something new.  To us, "just like today" is no more satisfying than "They   
   realize neither of them is interested in sex and both prefer to live alone"   
   would be to most romance    
   readers.     
      
   Not to mention that things might change before a story is published.  For   
   several months after the Soviet Union fell, "Soviets invade America" novels   
   were still turning up in bookstores.   There were probably others in the   
   pipeline or being written which    
   no one will get to read.   
      
   It's not possible to predict the future with total accuracy.  But there are   
   ways to cut down on bloopers.   
      
   1) If you graduated from high school thirty years ago, don't take for granted   
   that nothing has changed.  Check.     
      
   If you graduated last year, it still might be a good idea to check.   
      
   Yes, teenagers will still act like teenagers.  But they won't wear the same   
   clothing, listen to the same music, use the same slang.   And for how long has   
   it been possible for a lesbian couple to be elected Homecoming King and   
   Queen?  (See the March 2012    
   issue of Seventeen.)   
      
   Places you haven't been to in a while have undergone change.  In 1965, some   
   Paris restaurants had hectographed menus in their windows; this is probably no   
   longer the case.   (This wasn't mentioned in any guidebook I read.  If you   
   visit any place, and don'   
   t notice anything which isn't in guidebooks, I recommend an immediate medical   
   checkup.)   
      
   2) Look at what's already happened which will have highly-predictable   
   consequences.     
      
   When "Jennifer" became the most popular girl-baby name in the US, it was easy   
   to predict that in a bit less than twenty years there would be a lot of   
   college women named Jennifer.   
      
   It should have been obvious that the Baby Boom meant larger college classes   
   down the road.  I think most college administrators realized this around 1964,   
   but it might have been later.   
      
   3) Certain predictions keep being made, and keep being wrong.  "In a few   
   years, everyone will have at least one flying car."  "Once this law is passed,   
   the problem will be solved forever."  (If you want to write alternate history   
   in which ground cars    
   became obsolete in 1960, and Prohibition resulted in all Americans giving up   
   alcohol, that's another matter.)   
      
   4) Check to make sure you know what's really happening now that will affect   
   the future.  By the late 1980s, it should have been obvious that the Soviet   
   Union was in no shape to successfully invade the US.      
      
   5) Take account of moral panic cycles.  Right now, nonconsenting sex is A Big   
   Problem:  in US colleges, in science fiction fandom, in religious   
   organizations.  Drunken driving is also seen as more of a problem than used to   
   be the case.  Such jokes as "If    
   you drink, don't park.  Accidents cause people" are no longer as acceptable as   
   they once were.   
      
   Tobacco use has become much more restrictive.  And there are no longer ads   
   like "Reach for a Lucky instead of a sweet."      
      
   Conversely, marijuana has become acceptable enough to be legal in several US   
   states; and various other countries (Portugal, for example) have   
   decriminalized it.   
      
   And there are reciprocal cycles.  In certain times, even clueless hard drug   
   users realize that heroin is Bad News.  Many turn to nice, safe cocaine.    
   Later, such people  realize that cocaine is Bad News and turn to nice, safe   
   heroin.  (Any resemblance to    
   political cycles is left to your imagination.)   
      
   6) Eating habits will change.  Once, most Americans had never tasted pizza.     
   Pasties weren't always a Finnish-American dish in the Upper Midwest.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)