From: kurkku@hassuserveri.fi   
      
   "James A. Donald"  kirjoitti   
   viestissä:tkr4b49ucrbesu3hbrnc6dm7uab78mjnqk@4ax.com...   
   > James A. Donald kirjoitti:   
   >> > In May 1988, immediately after the Soviet withdrawal   
   >> > from Afghanistan began, Hungary had another go at   
   >> > doing the things it tried in 1956 - they took a big   
   >> > risk of war, but this time was not crushed.   
   >> >   
   >> > They reason they were willing to take this risk is   
   >> > that they judged that war was less likely, and if   
   >> > war ensued, victory more feasible.  They took this   
   >> > gamble within days of the Soviet Union's withdrawal   
   >> > from Afghanistan beginning.  The connection is   
   >> > direct and obvious.   
   >   
   > Anton   
   >> Pure speculation.   
   >   
   > Whenever one inquires what motivates actions, one   
   > necessarily speculating, but this speculation is   
   > compellingly supported by the timing, one domino falling   
   > immediately after the first, and then another domino, in   
   > a cascade, pretty good evidence that one domino caused   
   > the next.   
   >   
   >> The Soviets still had enough muscle to hit the   
   >> civilians in eastern europe hard   
   >   
   > They had enough muscle to hit civilians in Afghanistan   
   > hard.  Did not do them much good.   
   >   
   >> if they had wanted to. I'd say the effect of pulling   
   >> out was the opposite: pulling out from Afghanistan   
   >> meant that they had battle exeprienced forces they   
   >> could have sent to europe to quell those uprisings.   
   >   
   > No doubt, but Reagan's strategy, rollback, was based on   
   > the key principle that because the Soviet economy was   
   > backward, impoverished, and primitive, its capability to   
   > support a multitude of wars was limited, based on the   
   > key point that the Soviet military budget was already   
   > stretched to the ultimate limit.  The plan was that if   
   > the US sets the pace, the US could set the pace to more   
   > wars than the Soviet Union could afford materially -   
   > instead of trying to match Russia with conscript cannon   
   > fodder, match them with trucks and planes and ammo.   
   >   
   > If the Soviets launched another war, they would be   
   > playing into Reagan's hand, walking into the trap   
   > everyone knew he was setting for them.  So if they   
   > launched a war in Hungary, chances are that Reagan would   
   > intervene, not in Hungary, but some place a long way   
   > from Hungary, thereby stretching the Soviet transport   
   > capability, and reducing their capability to supply   
   > resources to the Hungarian war.   
   >   
   >> Also: as the new generation did not experience the   
   >> revolution and the civil war in Russia, Stalin's   
   >> purges and mass doprtations, the WWII, the system had   
   >> a younger generation that did not see violance being   
   >> the means of settling all political disputes.   
   >   
   > That would explain the fall, if the fall began in   
   > Russia.  But instead the fall began on the periphery,   
   > starting amongst those people who had most recently   
   > suffered communist violence, and spreading to those who   
   > had least recently suffered communist violence.   
   >   
   >   
   > --   
   >  ----------------------   
   > We have the right to defend ourselves and our property, because   
   > of the kind of animals that we are. True law derives from this   
   > right, not from the arbitrary power of the omnipotent state.   
   >   
   > http://www.jim.com/      James A. Donald   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)