72c8cad2   
   From: green_knight@greenknight.org.uk.invalid   
      
   David Friedman  wrote:   
      
   >  green_knight@greenknight.org.uk.invalid (Catja Pafort) wrote:   
   >   
   > > David Friedman wrote:   
   > >   
      
   > > > And, of course, women on average live significantly longer than men.   
   > >   
   > > It seems to me as if the gap is closing. There is still a significant   
   > > gap in the upper age ranges in men due to WWII, there's a dissonance in   
   > > cultures/locations where men are strongly engaged in violence, and there   
   > > seems to be a link between poverty and gender disparity, but overall,   
   > > the gap is closing, and I would not be suprised to see it at 1-3 years   
   > > in 2030.   
   > >   
   > > Given that there is almost a three-year gap betwen England and Scotland,   
   > > I am not _entirely_ convinced at the wisdom of calling this gap   
   > > 'statistically significant.'   
   >   
   > I didn't actually say "statistically significant," but if I had then   
   > your response would be entirely irrelevant   
      
   Err, what other 'significant' do you mean when you're talking about   
   statistics? The question is how 'an average life expectancy' relates to   
   your individual chances of reaching a certain age. The average life   
   expectancies in the past calculated around the low 30s are treacherous:   
   people had a very high chance of dieing before they were one year old.   
   Once they had grown to adulthood, they had a good chance of dieing in   
   their fifties or sixties.   
      
   Calculating the average life expectancies of men using data from two   
   generations in which a lot more men than women died young in war says   
   nothing about the average non-combat-soldier's life expectancy. So I'm   
   saying let's eliminate that artefact from our data by waiting another   
   twenty years - it'll still skew numbers a bit, but I expect them to be   
   more meaningful.   
      
      
   > --the gap between England and   
   > Scotland is statistically significant too, given the size of the   
   > populations. I don't know what other sense of "significant" you had in   
   > mind.   
      
   Before I say anything about the significance or not of the difference   
   between England and Scotland I want to know something about migration   
   patterns. If long-lived Scots buy bungalows in Brighton, all bets are   
   off.   
      
      
   All in all, women might _on paper_ live longer than men, but I'm not   
   convinced that being female gives me a longer life-expectancy. One thing   
   I have yet to see is a statistic that's weighed for risk-taking. I   
   suspect the life expectancy of the average non-violent,   
   non-drink-driving civilian male isn't far off the life expectancy of the   
   average female.   
      
   Ah, yes. Life and its coplexities.   
      
   Catja   
      
      
      
   --   
   writing blog @ http://beyond-elechan.livejournal.com   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
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