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   rec.arts.sf.misc      Science fiction lovers' newsgroup      3,290 messages   

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   Message 2,187 of 3,290   
   J. Clarke to All   
   Re: cases where SF has predicted scienti   
   14 Jan 14 05:34:28   
   
   XPost: rec.arts.sf.written, rec.arts.sf.science   
   From: jclarkeusenet@cox.net   
      
   In article , robban@clubtelco.com   
   says...   
   >   
   > On 13/01/2014 11:13 pm, J. Clarke wrote:   
   > > In article , robban@clubtelco.com   
   > > says...   
   > >>   
   > >> On 13/01/2014 11:07 am, J. Clarke wrote:   
   > >>> In article ,   
   > >>> droleary@8usenet2013.subsume.com says...   
   > >>>>   
   > >>>> In article ,   
   > >>>>    Greg Goss  wrote:   
   > >>>>   
   > >>>>> Doc O'Leary  wrote:   
   > >>>>>   
   > >>>>>> problems than they've solved.  Same goes for this self-driving   
   nonsense;   
   > >>>>>> it makes no sense to turn cars into trains via software.  Use a train   
   if   
   > >>>>>> you want a train; you could've been doing that for over a century.   
   > >>>>>   
   > >>>>> Trains and planes are a nuisance because you have no flexibility once   
   > >>>>> you get near your destination.   
   > >>>>   
   > >>>> That is only what you have come to know based on the current, flawed   
   > >>>> implementation of those technologies.  These are sci-fi newsgroups, so   
   > >>>> I'm asking you to engage in future thinking.  You have to engage in the   
   > >>>> world building exercise that imagines superior technologies as actually   
   > >>>> existing and in common place usage, with all the connected changes they   
   > >>>> imply.   
   > >>>>   
   > >>>> One example for flying cars: what *does* make sense as a destination?   
   > >>>> How far can you fly with it, and how much do you still have to drive?   
   > >>>> Like I said, why would you drive much at all?  And does it make sense to   
   > >>>> have the destination as a parking garage, only to have to still get down   
   > >>>> to ground level, walk to an office building, and wait for an elevator   
   > >>>> ride to get back up to the same height you flew in at?  The technology   
   > >>>> forces you to reconsider everything about how people live.   
   > >>>   
   > >>> No, the technology has to fit how people live.  Maybe 100 years after   
   > >>> everybody has flying cars the infrastructure would have been altered to   
   > >>> accommodate them but they aren't going to tear down every building in   
   > >>> the world and rebuild it for flying cars the first time somebody buys   
   > >>> one.   
   > >>>   
   > >>>>> Generally people on planes either rent   
   > >>>>> a car when they get there, or mooch transportation from the people   
   > >>>>> that they're visiting.   
   > >>>>   
   > >>>> Because, generally, what makes a plane air-worthy can be compromised by   
   > >>>> driving around in traffic.  Point being, any new technology that makes   
   > >>>> sense in creating a flying car must *necessarily* be first proven   
   > >>>> effective in creating better planes.  If you're not seeing that, and   
   > >>>> we're not, you won't be seeing flying cars any time soon.  Simple as   
   > >>>> that.   
   > >>>   
   > >>> Why does technology that makes sense in creating a flying car have to   
   > >>> "be effective in creating better planes"?  There's no need for a Mach 25   
   > >>> scramjet in a flying car.   
   > >>>   
   > >>>>> Building a virtual train out of self-driving bits?  That's kinda like   
   > >>>>> building an internet by making self-driving packets.  It'll never   
   > >>>>> work.   
   > >>>>   
   > >>>> I don't even understand the analogy you're trying to make.  Self-driving   
   > >>>> cars *are* a virtual train.   
   > >>>   
   > >>> Only if there are dozens of them in a line on the same highway.   
   > >>>   
   > >>>> There are some advantages they might have   
   > >>>> over a physical train, but many disadvantages, too.  My point simply is   
   > >>>> that it's not futuristic technology to combine two existing vehicle   
   > >>>> types, be it car-plane or car-train, certainly not simply because the   
   > >>>> "rails" are done in software instead of hardware.  I think it'll work   
   > >>>> just fine, if you throw enough resources at the problem, but the more   
   > >>>> sensible thing to do would be to use physical rails so that you don't   
   > >>>> *need* to waste those resources tackling what is a solved problem.   
   > >>>   
   > >>> So you're going to run rails to everybody's house, everybody's job, ever   
   > >>> shopping center, every empty field?   
   > >>   
   > >> One of the problems I see with all city planning of roads, inner-city   
   > >> freeways and public transport is the assumption that most people want to   
   > >> come in from outer suburbs to the centre of the city, whereas many of   
   > >> them want to cross the city to the other side or circle round to another   
   > >> suburb. True, some cities have a ring road or circular bus route, but   
   > >> the into the middle and then out again idea seems to prevail.   
   > >> Were it not for this, then the rails, real or virtual, would simply be   
   > >> for our current major roads.   
   > >   
   > > There is a railroad station between my house and my current work.  The   
   > > trouble is that I have to drive 20 minutes to get there, and the train   
   > > puts me a mile from work, with a total transit time of more than an   
   > > hour.  Further, it doesn't arrive or leave at times convenient to my   
   > > working hours.  Driving directly to work is 30 minutes and I end up   
   > > across the street from work.  And I have to pay more for the train   
   > > ticket than the cost of gas.  So why would it be to my benefit to use a   
   > > train for any part of my commute?   
   > >   
   > > If you have people going from one densely populated location to another,   
   > > or if the commute is long, then the train makes sense--this is why the   
   > > Long Island Railroad and Conrail work--they are carrying commuters 20-50   
   > > miles into one of the most densely populated areas on Earth.  When the   
   > > population density is low and the commute is short, the train is just a   
   > > waste of resources.   
   > >   
   > > I know train fans love trains, but the fact is that the circumstances   
   > > under which they make economic sense are limited.   
   > >   
   >   
   > That's what the conservatives said about rail in my city. Now the   
   > no-longer-quite-new trains are packed and are much faster than you could   
   > possibly drive and cheaper than using a car. It's the parking at the   
   > train station that is the problem.   
      
   There are trains going into most major cities in the US.  Few of them   
   are "packed".   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)   

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