XPost: rec.arts.sf.written, rec.arts.sf.science   
   From: rod.speed.aaa@gmail.com   
      
   Leszek Karlik  wrote   
   > Sea Wasp (Ryk E. Spoor)  seawasp@sgeinc.invalid.com> wrote   
      
   >>> And we all know that SF is exactly like today, only with blasters ;-))   
      
   >>> The problem with good electric cars today is that they're rather   
   >>> expensive and there's no support network, but for a municipal   
   >>> self-driving car/public transit hybrid system they should work rather   
   >>> well (because they can self-drive themselves to a charging station).   
      
   >> When I see self-driving cars I'll start thinking about that (because   
   >> only then will you be able to start changing the laws and regulations to   
   >> allow you to use the cars as public transit). As others have pointed   
   >> out, people also use their cars for things other than just getting to   
   >> work, and that will make it harder to pull off.   
      
   > That will require a change in attitudes, but money and convenience are a   
   > pretty efficient attitude changer.   
      
   It's less clear that that will come with self driving cars.   
      
   > Self-driving cars have the capacity for a significant reduction in   
   > transport-related mortalities,   
      
   Yes, but we have done that in other ways, basically   
   by making car crashes much less likely to produce   
   a mortality and with freeways that are much less   
   likely to produce car crashes in the first place.   
      
   > which are especially harmful to the society, because it's frequently   
   > children and young people who get killed in traffic accidents. (And thus   
   > they have a high related cost of lost future productivity)   
      
   And that is why we have done so much about that mortality already.   
      
   > Significant reduction in transport-related mortality will lead to vastly   
   > preferential insurance rates for self-driving cars,   
      
   Not until they completely dominate the cars on the roads and   
   I can't see that happening any time soon for various reasons.   
      
   > and the ball should start rolling.   
      
   But won't, you watch.   
      
   > Well, unless "old car" lobbyists introduce legislation prohibiting   
   > market practices in car insurance market, which wouldn't be surprising,   
   > after all, that's what lobbyists are for. So, the US might turn out to be   
   > rather resistant to this "self-driving car" concept :-)   
      
   We'll see...   
      
   > [...]   
   >>> Oil changes are cheap, but rather frequent, every few thousand miles,   
   >>> and really, suspension maintenance is much less frequently performed   
   >>> than things like drive belts, fuel and air filters, valve clearances,   
   >>> coolant   
   >>> replacement etc. I have internal combustion powered bikes and I do the   
   >>> maintenance myself, so far no suspension work has been necessary ;-)   
      
   >> Well, as I said it depends on your batteries. Generally the batteries   
   >> are half the cost of the car according to various references I've found,   
   >> so if you have to replace them even once every 10 years, you're VASTLY   
   >> more expensive to maintain than both of my cars have been over the last   
   >> 10 years.   
      
   > When you buy a Tesla Model S for 70 grand, you can buy a "battery   
   > replacement in 8+ years" option, for 8 to 12 grand.   
      
   Which is more than the cheaper brand new cars cost.   
      
   > Battery prices are falling rapidly, because there's a lot of incentives to   
   > research better batteries - phones, laptops, electric vehicles etc.   
      
   Bet they don’t with cars.   
      
   > Everything benefits from better batteries. I remember first laptops, with   
   > 2 to 3 hours of operating time on a single charge. Now the laptop I'm   
   > using has up to 5 hours on a small battery, with vastly better   
   > performance, and consumer portables frequently have 8+ hours of battery   
   > time.   
      
   Sure, but you need a lot more than that to get a viable range in an   
   electric car for a sensible price compared with an IC engined car.   
      
   > Similarly to solar power and LED lighting the power/cost curve of   
   > batteries   
   > is advancing rather rapidly. This is why electric power is the way of the   
   > future.   
      
   Not for cars it isn't.   
      
   > Gasoline's power density is way higher than electric batteries, of course,   
   > but using this power is inconvenient, expensive and dangerous.   
      
   Its actually much cheaper than doing it with   
   an electric car and will be essentially forever.   
      
   > We've done this for a long time, so we're used to it, but now it makes   
   > sense to switch to electricity :-)   
      
   No it doesn’t with cars.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)