XPost: rec.arts.sf.written, rec.arts.sf.science   
   From: YourName@YourISP.com   
      
   In article , Bernard Peek   
    wrote:   
   > On 14/01/14 18:25, Doc O'Leary wrote:   
   > > So while self-driving cars are definitely possible, my point remains   
   > > that they'll be ushered in surrounded by a cloud of changes to the way   
   > > the world works.  Some of those changes will be easy to predict, and   
   > > some with be complete surprises.  It's just outright*wrong*  if all you   
   > > do is apply today's thinking to a world where a fanciful technology is   
   > > commonplace.   
   >   
   > I could probably put together a design for self-driving cars that could   
   > be built with today's technology. What I can't see is a transition state   
   > where some cars are self-driving and others aren't.   
      
   That transistion state is (almost) here already in some countries.   
   There was an article in the motoring section of this week's newspaper   
   about a small Toyota(?) car that will be released in Japan soon which   
   uses the "duck walking" method - self-driving car(s) follow a pilot   
   vehicle in a similar way to ducklings following a mother duck. The   
   article wasn't clear, but presumably the person riding in the following   
   car can at any point turn off and drive nromally to their own   
   destination.   
      
      
      
      
   > I think it might   
   > have to be a big-bang transition where from 00:00 on day zero all cars   
   > are required to have all of the systems in place and operational. Cars   
   > (and other vehicles) without the system become museum pieces literally   
   > overnight. It might be simpler (and cheaper) to build a completely new   
   > system and scrap every existing vehicle rather than trying to retrofit   
   > vehicles that were not designed to be self-driving.   
      
   Not going to happen. Even if you ignored the massively hideous expense,   
   there are too many car enthusiasts who like maintaining and driving   
   their 1960s, 1920s, etc. cars around.   
      
   The VW Combi van was meant to finally stop production in South America   
   recently, but the government has apparently decided that because it's   
   an "old car design" (despite newly built ones coming off the assembly   
   lines) it may not have to qualify to the latest restrictions, so it   
   looks like the VW Combi van will continue being made.   
      
   That's why the likes of Google are trying to have normal cars drive   
   themselves, rather than the pod systems that currently require their   
   own roading systems. No doubt once it all "works" there will be kits   
   you can buy to add the system to older vehicles, just like you can   
   currently add reversing cameras, etc.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)