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   rec.arts.sf.misc      Science fiction lovers' newsgroup      3,290 messages   

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   Message 2,718 of 3,290   
   Dimensional Traveler to Chrysi Cat   
   Re: cases where SF has predicted scienti   
   23 Jan 14 19:46:13   
   
   XPost: rec.arts.sf.written, rec.arts.sf.science   
   From: dtravel@sonic.net   
      
   On 1/23/2014 6:31 PM, Chrysi Cat wrote:   
   > On 1/23/2014 5:21 PM, Your Name wrote:   
   >> In article <1xxsbf7bzxt8w.1244utm9kehz9.dlg@40tude.net>, Brian M. Scott   
   >>  wrote:   
   >>> On Fri, 24 Jan 2014 09:27:46 +1300, Your Name   
   >>>  wrote in   
   >>>  in   
   >>> rec.arts.sf.written,rec.arts.sf.science,rec.arts.sf.misc:   
   >>>   
   >>> [...]   
   >>>   
   >>>> The problem is "surveys" are never accurate because they   
   >>>> simply ask far too few people [...]   
   >>>   
   >>> On the contrary, sample size is rarely a problem.  The   
   >>> problem is getting a simple random sample.   
   >>   
   >> Few surveys are actually random. Idiot companies like Neilsen pick and   
   >> choose who can and can't be surveyed in the pretense of obtaining a   
   >> "statistically equivalent" ratio of people, which in itself means it's   
   >> never going to be random nor accurate.   
   >>   
   >> Sample size is also a big problem. There's no point asking 50 people   
   >> out of a population of 50 million ... the results are useless, and the   
   >> way such results are reported is even worse. The survey is ONLY ever   
   >> going to be accurate for those 50 people. Anything else supposedly   
   >> "proven" is pure gueswork and manipulation, and often (especially in   
   >> marketing) statistically manipulated to "prove" wahtever the people   
   >> paying for it want it to "prove".   
   >>   
   > If I didn't know better, I'd say "Shawn-like typing detected".   
   > Statistics work. If you couldn't extrapolate from a proper sample (which   
   > would probably be closer to 500 or 5000 for that 50 mil), then we'd   
   > pretty much be up a creek for knowing what people do and think...   
   >   
   I've spent a few years as the guy in the field collecting that data you   
   are extrapolating from.  We're up the creek.   
      
   --   
   The 'Enterprise' crew in the 2009 Star Trek are adrenaline addicted,   
   hyper-active teenagers with ADD whose Ritalin got replaced with   
   methamphetamine, displaying a level of discipline that a Somali pirate   
   wouldn't tolerate.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)   

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