From: petertrei@gmail.com
On 11/17/2025 11:02 AM, a425couple wrote:
> On 11/17/25 02:45, Christian Weisgerber wrote:
>> On 2025-11-17, Bobbie Sellers wrote:
>>
>>>>> The novel is set on Earth in the year 2381, when the population of the
>>>>> planet has reached 75 billion people.[4] Population growth has
>>>>> skyrocketed due to a quasi-religious belief in human reproduction
>>>>> as the
>>>>> highest possible good.
>>>>
>>>> Going from 8 billions now, that reflects a modest population growth
>>>> of 20.5% for each 30-year generation.
>>>
>>> Remember that attrition occurs.
>>
>> That's subsumed under the overall x% growth figure.
>>
>>> Plus generations were reckoned
>>> at 20 years but that was 70 years ago when I was in school.
>>> Maybe the 30 year figure is based on data?
>>
>> I just picked 30 years. "Three generations per century" we were
>> taught in school some forty years ago and 0.63% yearly growth is
>> harder to intuitively make sense of. You can fiddle with the
>> figures, but won't get a more plausible result. It's a standard
>> compound interest calculation. If you deposit 8 (billion) bucks
>> now and get payed out 75 (billion) in 356 years, the yearly interest
>> is 0.63%.
>>
> The future that Silverberg was portraying in his
> "The World Inside" was just totally different that the
> reality of our low middle income childbirth rates
> and our old "generations" ideas that it just does
> not compare.
> Big one, child bearing ages now are quite concerned
> with finances and time constraints.
> Silverbergs view in that book eliminated those and also
> had a special kick of religious duty.
>
The book explicitly has people usually marrying at 12, and
becoming parents by 14.
pt
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
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