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   rec.arts.sf.written      Discussion of written science fiction an      448,027 messages   

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   Message 447,369 of 448,027   
   William Hyde to All   
   Re: Garfield: Predicting the future   
   17 Jan 26 15:05:33   
   
   XPost: rec.arts.comics.strips   
   From: wthyde1953@gmail.com   
      
   Lawrence D’Oliveiro wrote:   
   > On Fri, 16 Jan 2026 18:18:20 -0500, William Hyde wrote:   
   >   
   >> Rule 6. As much as possible, confine your purchases to stocks that   
   >> pay a dividend (but not too high a one, that is a danger sign). This   
   >> is a personal rule that many would not agree with.   
   >   
   > Some background knowledge of the industry in question can be helpful.   
   > For example, among computing-related companies, Microsoft didn’t pay   
   > any dividends for about the first 15 years after it went public -- it   
   > didn’t need to, because as a “growth stock”, increases in the value of   
   > the shares were enough to keep shareholders happy.   
   >   
   Quite right - this is a personal rule.  But it is one followed by many   
   successful investors.  It also tends to involve a lower frequency of   
   trading, which saves money but does not make it popular with financial   
   advisors as the business profits from trades.   
      
   I tend to avoid growth stocks because I am not good at picking them.   
   The press loves stories like that of Amazon, Microsoft, Subaru, and so   
   on.  But a fair number of growth stories turn rapidly to shrinking   
   stories, and yesterday's darlings like Yahoo, Nortel, and so on become   
   today's dogs.   
      
   Turnaround stocks are also very difficult to call.  For every Chrysler   
   out there there are a dozen turnarounds that didn't work.  Nortel again,   
   for example.   
      
   Peter Lynch or Jeff Vinik can judge these things. I cannot.   
      
   I prefer a safety net, and the commitment to have enough cash to meet a   
   dividend is such a net, if not an infallible one. It keeps management   
   focused.   
      
   The shysters do know that there are people with my attitude, so fake   
   dividend stories have been concocted, with dividends paid from borrowed   
   money, often fraudulently described.  Even staid utilities can go bad   
   this way, as did Tucson electric power circa 1990. A common symptom of   
   this is a very high dividend, which as I said should be seen as a   
   warning sign.   
      
      
   William Hyde   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)   

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