From: liz@poppyrecords.invalid.invalid   
      
   Don Y  wrote:   
      
   > On 11/19/2025 1:30 PM, Liz Tuddenham wrote:   
   > > Don Y  wrote:   
      
   [...]   
   > >> I can look at the "ground" to determine the *type* of cloud cover and   
   > >> whether it is transitional or not.  But, that won't tell me what's   
   > >> on either side of my bit of sky.  It won't help me *plan*.   
   > >   
   > > Last Sunday I had parked the van on a local hill and a friend and I were   
   > > doing exactly what you seem to want to automate.  The first problem was   
   > > the wind direction, which appeared to be different at different heights   
   > > - so different cloud layers were moving in different directions.   
   > >   
   > > Then we noticed that there appeared to be a large patch of blue sky   
   > > appearing but there was no corresponding patch of sunlight on the ground   
   > > beneath it.  We worked out that this was because we could see blue sky   
   > > through a diagonal gap between two layers - but in the direction of the   
   > > sunlight, the layers overlapped.  This was confirmed by the tops of some   
   > > of the clouds (presumably in the lower layer) being illuminated by   
   > > sunshine.   
   > >   
   > > We came to the conclusion that weather was extremely difficult to   
   > > predict from observations like that, even on a very short-term basis.   
   >   
   > But weather forecasters have to (try) to be accurate.  All I need   
   > to do is improve the odds of my making a "better decision" than I   
   > would in the absence of any such data.   
   >   
   > If you *lived* on that hill, do you think your opinion might have   
   > changed?   
      
   Not really, the winds and clouds would be different again the next day.   
   A few things would be obvious, like an approaching squall if the wind   
   was steady from one direction, but there are days when the wind   
   direction at ground level varies throughout the day and approaching   
   weather patterns appear to melt away before they arrive..   
      
   The UK is on a turbulent boundary between a marine envirnment with mild   
   moist air to the North and a continental environment with dry air and   
   settled temperature extremes to the South.  Anticyclones progress from   
   the South-west to the North-east, bringing swings in wind direction   
   which differ according to whether they pass to the North or the South of   
   the observer.   
      
   If the boundary shifts Northwards we get day after day of settled   
   weather and heatwaves in Summer because the anticyclones bring air from   
   the South.  If it shifts Southwards,  in Winter we get prolonged   
   freeze-ups as they bring air from the North or Northeast.   
      
   Living on a hill would allow cloud patterns to be observed at a greater   
   distance but would increase the error in predicting the direction they   
   would travel and the actual weather they would bring.   
      
      
   --   
   ~ Liz Tuddenham ~   
   (Remove the ".invalid"s and add ".co.uk" to reply)   
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