From: blockedofcourse@foo.invalid   
      
   On 11/20/2025 3:55 AM, Liz Tuddenham wrote:   
   > Don Y  wrote:   
   >   
   >> On 11/19/2025 1:30 PM, Liz Tuddenham wrote:   
   >>> Don Y  wrote:   
   >   
   > [...]   
   >>>> I can look at the "ground" to determine the *type* of cloud cover and   
   >>>> whether it is transitional or not.  But, that won't tell me what's   
   >>>> on either side of my bit of sky.  It won't help me *plan*.   
   >>>   
   >>> Last Sunday I had parked the van on a local hill and a friend and I were   
   >>> doing exactly what you seem to want to automate.  The first problem was   
   >>> the wind direction, which appeared to be different at different heights   
   >>> - so different cloud layers were moving in different directions.   
   >>>   
   >>> Then we noticed that there appeared to be a large patch of blue sky   
   >>> appearing but there was no corresponding patch of sunlight on the ground   
   >>> beneath it.  We worked out that this was because we could see blue sky   
   >>> through a diagonal gap between two layers - but in the direction of the   
   >>> sunlight, the layers overlapped.  This was confirmed by the tops of some   
   >>> of the clouds (presumably in the lower layer) being illuminated by   
   >>> sunshine.   
   >>>   
   >>> We came to the conclusion that weather was extremely difficult to   
   >>> predict from observations like that, even on a very short-term basis.   
   >>   
   >> But weather forecasters have to (try) to be accurate.  All I need   
   >> to do is improve the odds of my making a "better decision" than I   
   >> would in the absence of any such data.   
   >>   
   >> If you *lived* on that hill, do you think your opinion might have   
   >> changed?   
   >   
   > Not really, the winds and clouds would be different again the next day.   
   > A few things would be obvious, like an approaching squall if the wind   
   > was steady from one direction, but there are days when the wind   
   > direction at ground level varies throughout the day and approaching   
   > weather patterns appear to melt away before they arrive..   
   >   
   > The UK is on a turbulent boundary between a marine envirnment with mild   
   > moist air to the North and a continental environment with dry air and   
   > settled temperature extremes to the South.  Anticyclones progress from   
   > the South-west to the North-east, bringing swings in wind direction   
   > which differ according to whether they pass to the North or the South of   
   > the observer.   
      
   We have similar issues, here.  I can move several blocks in any direction   
   and experience different "average weather" conditions.  I can *see* it   
   raining many blocks from here.  Or, in the mountains.  Or, see the rain   
   never making it to the ground, elsewhere.   
      
   I *know* (without proof) that when I drive to the other side of town,   
   later today, they will have had considerably more rain than we saw,   
   here.  I also know that it is highly UNlikely that they will NOT have   
   rain while we do.  But, know that they will often have rain while we   
   DON'T.   
      
   Because of observations.  Something machines are really good at.   
      
   > If the boundary shifts Northwards we get day after day of settled   
   > weather and heatwaves in Summer because the anticyclones bring air from   
   > the South.  If it shifts Southwards,  in Winter we get prolonged   
   > freeze-ups as they bring air from the North or Northeast.   
   >   
   > Living on a hill would allow cloud patterns to be observed at a greater   
   > distance but would increase the error in predicting the direction they   
   > would travel and the actual weather they would bring.   
      
   Again, you don't need to "predict".  You just need to end up biasing your   
   guesstimate as to what is MORE likely to happen than if you deprived yourself   
   of those observations.   
      
   Even if you never look skyward, you likely notice "patterns in the light"   
   that consciously or sunconsciously bias your actions/expectations.   
      
   It was overcast for most of the city, today.  Yet, we had clear skies   
   overhead.   Here.   
      
   I disabled the irrigation system (it doesn't yet understand weather beyond   
   PAST weather -- knowing to defer watering when it has SEEN precipitation   
   before the normal cycle) on the assumption that it was likely that we would   
   see rain, today.  And, failing that, we could tolerate delaying our irrigation   
   for another 24 hours.   
      
   At 2 *AM*, it started to rain.  Had I let the irrigation controller proceed   
   with its planned cycle, we would have wasted that "city water" as the rain more   
   than made up for it.  (had the ACTUAL rainfall totals been less, the controller   
   could adjust its cycle *tomorrow* to make up the deficit; but, it can't reduce   
   what it did YESTERDAY!).   
      
   When you play blackjack, you can "count cards".  This doesn't let you *predict*   
   the cards to be dealt.  But, it gives you an edge in deciding what is LIKELY   
   to be dealt.  Over time, that edge hurts The House (which is why you'll find   
   yourself escorted from the premises if suspected of doing so).   
      
   THAT is the goal, here.  Just like your looking skyward (there's nothing   
   particularly *interesting* up there, so why EVER look up?) gives you an   
   edge (if you have been observant) in planning your activities.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)