[continued from previous message]   
      
   > commanders, air defense systems, ballistic missile launchers, and other   
   > strategic infrastructure with little to no collateral damage, Iran as a   
   > sovereign state was, and remains, entirely naked, defensively speaking.   
   > None of that goes away with the ceasefire coming in.   
   >   
   > As part of that intelligence, It is unconfirmed, but makes all the   
   > logical sense in the world being that the United States and Israel were   
   > in full coordination during America's bombing run last weekend, that our   
   > B-2's released those dozen or so Bunker Busters that hit with absolute   
   > precision most likely because there were Israelis on the ground painting   
   > the targets. There were literally eyes on all of the nuclear sites, but   
   > especially Fordow, for a long time. To buy into the theory that the   
   > Iranians just snuck stuff out without the Israelis knowing it doesn't fly.   
   >   
   > If you want to entertain a fun possibility, let's say the Iranians did   
   > truck out their weapons-grade uranium. You would also have to assume   
   > that the Israelis knew it as soon as it was happening. Who's to say that   
   > the Mossad didn't run a Red October, and that whatever material was in   
   > question has a new home safe from being used for anything nefarious   
   > again? I'd think that's more plausible, but that's only if you want to   
   > buy into the report that they snuck it out in the first place. The more   
   > likely scenario is whatever uranium was in Fordow is now buried under   
   > thousands of tons of rock and mountain.   
   >   
   > As for the Iranian intent to restart and rebuild, beginning with   
   > attempting to get to that enriched uranium buried at Fordow, again,   
   > nothing has changed on the ground. Both the U.S. and Israel are   
   > watching. If one Iranian sinks a shovel into the top of the rock pile to   
   > start digging it out, he won't make it home that night. Israel retains   
   > both the capability and willingness to act preemptively if Iran begins   
   > to cheat on the ceasefire. And Iran is currently powerless to do   
   > anything to stop it.   
   >   
   > But now we get to the biggest lesson learned from just the last few   
   > days. There was a legitimate unanswered question of whether or not Ali   
   > Khamenei was a true believer, or just another despot in a long line of   
   > autocrats in world history that are perfectly willing to fight to the   
   > death, so long the dying is done by other people.   
   >   
   > If Khamenei were a true cultist, a believer in the 12th or Hidden Imam   
   > sect of Islam that believes ushering in global chaos is what uncaps the   
   > well somewhere, releasing their messiah to come in and set everything   
   > straight, then the ceasefire now orchestrated by Donald Trump is   
   > premature, and nothing will change in their desire to move forward with   
   > the annihilation of both the Big and Little Satan (the U.S. and Israel).   
   > If Khamenei is a true believer, he would not have called the White House   
   > to come to the table and negotiate. He would have been more than willing   
   > to become a martyr and die for his cause. But over the course of the   
   > last 72 hours, that's not what Khamenei did, is it? He did not act like   
   > he believed the Mahdi's return was imminent. He did not embrace becoming   
   > a martyr. He wants to negotiate a way to live and perhaps fight another   
   > day.   
   >   
   > That answers the question of whether he's a murderous, but rational   
   > monster or a religious zealot, and now that we know, it changes the   
   > dynamic entirely. Khamenei, when you cut through all of the rhetoric,   
   > wants to live another day. He's not ready to check out. Which means, we,   
   > the United States, and especially Israel, now own him - lock, stock and   
   > barrel.   
   >   
   > Could revolution come to Iran and overthrow the theocracy? Sure. And if   
   > that happens organically, I'd encourage the people seeking freedom from   
   > afar and help in any way possible. In the meantime, however, Khamenei's   
   > human survival instinct has now placed his clusters, or using the Boxing   
   > Helena analogy, a limbless torso in a box that rests on a desk somewhere   
   > in Jerusalem. Israel knows where Khamenei is at all times. If anyone in   
   > leadership twitches in the direction of restarting the nuclear program,   
   > Israel can and will end Khamenei's life, and that's only if Donald Trump   
   > doesn't beat them to it. Khamenei now rises every day at the pleasure of   
   > the one true God and His chosen people in the land God gave him. He's   
   > been checkmated.   
   >   
   > If money flows to proxy groups, the U.S. and Israel will know, and   
   > that's the end of him. No more need for nuclear deals, no more need for   
   > any of that. The leverage is gone. There is no more listening to   
   > complaints filed at the United Nations. Europe leaders have not   
   > criticized the 12-day war with Iran. Things have changed.   
   >   
   > Even if you believe Iran snuck the uranium out, and they have it   
   > somewhere else safe in Iran and intend to build bombs with it, they   
   > don't have the other implements of destruction necessary to finish the   
   > assembly process they once had at the other nuclear sites of Natanz and   
   > Isfahan. They no longer have a functional ballistic missile program, nor   
   > the personnel to design and build them. There are Israeli eyes and ears   
   > literally on everything sensitive in the country, and that number of   
   > surveillance operative will only increase in the coming months because   
   > again, Khamenei is powerless to stop it. He's been compromised. Iran no   
   > longer has a functional standing army or navy to speak of, and the   
   > prison that used to house political dissidents has been hit. Iran now   
   > has enough on their plate just to keep the regime in power, let alone   
   > project power elsewhere.   
   >   
   > Now that Iran has been taken off the table as a viable threat for the   
   > foreseeable future, let the next round of Abraham Accords begin to   
   > bloom. There is still hard work ahead for Israel with Hamas and   
   > Hezbollah holdouts that are the true believers, as we saw in the death   
   > of seven Israeli soldiers in Southern Gaza when their armored vehicle   
   > was hit by a Hamas terrorist's explosive. The cost has been   
   > extraordinarily high for Israel going back to October 7th, and honestly,   
   > for decades before that. No one should minimize the human and   
   > psychological toll on Israelis and Americans, and for that matter, Sunni   
   > Arabs as well, by the evil regime emanating from Tehran. But not to   
   > recognize a victory so complete it had to have a hand of Divine   
   > Providence guiding it would also be a mistake. It's nothing short of   
   > miraculous to see where the Middle East rests compared to what it looked   
   > like even a month ago.   
   >   
   > The next report you see in media about 'but Trump this', or 'Trump   
   > that,' say a prayer for another moment of God's providence. A quarter of   
   > an inch, a slight turn of the head in Butler, Pennsylvania 11 months   
   > ago, and the United States, the Middle East, and the entire world would   
   > look a lot different, and very likely more menacing, than it does right   
   > now.   
   >   
   TL; DR F!   
      
   --   
   Hasbro   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)