From: alain245@videotron.ca   
      
   On Aug/26/2020 at 15:18, David Spain wrote :   
   > On 8/15/2020 7:57 PM, Alain Fournier wrote:   
   >> On Apr/24/2020 at 09:19, David Spain wrote :   
   >>> On 2020-04-23 7:22 PM, Alain Fournier wrote:   
   >>>> Betelgeuse luminosity is now reaching what it was at its most recent   
   >>>> luminosity high (March 2019) and the curve is not showing any sign   
   >>>> of slowing down. Still too early to be excited, but I think it is   
   >>>> worthwhile to monitor its luminosity.   
   >>>>   
   >>>>   
   >>>> Alain Fournier   
   >>>>   
   >>>   
   >>> Natch it is now passing into our daylight sky as summer approaches.   
   >>> If goes supernova we might see a bright spot in the daytime sky this   
   >>> summer. If it persists into next winter, THAT would be spectacular.   
   >>>   
   >>> Let's hope if it is heading this way it holds off for a few months!   
   >>> Personally I hope not. I like it they way it is....   
   >>>   
   >>> Dave   
   >>   
   >> It has now crossed the sun and has survived :-) Its luminosity is on   
   >> its way down. It should be continuing to dim for several more months   
   >> (but who knows, it isn't really following the script any more) but it   
   >> has already reached its dimmest value of the 20 years prior to   
   >> November 2019 (V-magnitude over 1), though still very far from the 1.8   
   >> magnitude of earlier this year.   
   >>   
   >> It is hard to tell from the few data points available, but its current   
   >> dimming cycle seems to be even more pronounced than the previous one   
   >> at the same point in the cycle. So it might dim to more than a 1.8   
   >> magnitude this time. Who knows? I still think it is about to go super   
   >> nova. On an astronomical time scale, that is within the next 100,000   
   >> years or so.   
   >>   
   >>   
   >> Alain Fournier   
   >   
   > So have you seen this article on the possibility it is dimming because   
   > of the ejection of large amount of material that has cooled and is in   
   > our line of sight?   
   >   
   > Dave   
   >   
   >   
   > Synopsis:   
   >> https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-betelgeuse-super   
   ova-not-happening-sorry-20200814-mpqycqgsufhpblh7ws6ozsk6hu-story.html   
   >>   
   >   
   > Actual Paper: (paywalled)   
   >> https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aba516   
      
   Yes I had read that. And when I read it, I thought it was a good   
   explanation for the dimming. But If the dimming happens again this year,   
   then an explanation needs to be found as for why all of a sudden   
   Betelgeuse has started to eject large amounts of material.   
      
   Note also that "large" amounts of material here means really very large   
   amounts. The size of Betelgeuse means that a mere billion tonnes of   
   material would be insufficient by several orders of magnitude.   
      
      
   Alain Fournier   
      
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