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|    sci.space.policy    |    Discussions about space policy    |    106,651 messages    |
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|    Message 105,615 of 106,651    |
|    Snidely to JF Mezei    |
|    Re: is SpaceX OK?    |
|    04 Dec 21 23:27:05    |
      From: snidely.too@gmail.com              On Saturday or thereabouts, JF Mezei asked ...       > This week, Musk warned of possible bankruptcy if teams couldn't finish       > design and ramp up Raptor 2 production ,and one senior VP was fired.       >       > Everyone knows that Starship is just a hobby right now. Bringing up the       > word "bankruptcy" stains the reputation of the whole compamy and a hobby       > should not endanger the company. You stop buying Falcon9 launches if       > you are not sure the compamy will still be around at time of your       > scheduled launch.       >       > If a company warns of "bankruptcy", it shouldn't be starting to build       > new launch pads/stage 0 in Florida when its first one isn't complete       > yet, let alone having had first launch and landing.       >       > Starship is a bigger project than anyone has ever done before let alone       > a compamy the size of SpaxeX. Such projects always take longer than       > expected and cost much more than expected. And with iterative design,       > there is still uncertainty whether it will work since the final design       > is not published (and perhaps there is no final design yet)       >       > This past week's warning is sign that money may run out because project       > takiung longer than expected. Considering the project is nowhere near       > finished, this is worrysome. And the last thing Musk should have done is       > spread uncertainty about viability of not only the proejct but the whole       > company.       >       >       > I would assume Shotwell was busy with damage control with investors this       > week. But the cat is out of the bag: the msssage was sent that the       > project is at risk of failure.       >       >       > It is significant though that Musk's message was spefific to Raptor       > engines because that is the one component of value that could be spun       > off into consortium with Boeihg or others. The Boca Chica plant might be       > sold and retasked to build grain silos, but that isn't high value.       >       > Putting SpaceX in jeoperdy will likely have reverberations within NASA       > who would start planning for a plan B should spaceX falter.       >       > Irrespective of reality of finances, it was extremely dumb of Musk to       > use the word "bankruptcy" in any communications.              Don't expect SpaceX to go bankrupt. Don't expect big shock waves to       ripple through the markets because of the email. And even more, don't       equate "bankruptcy" with "disappearing". Certainly didn't mean that       for GM.              /dps              --       "I'm glad unicorns don't ever need upgrades."       "We are as up as it is possible to get graded!"       _Phoebe and Her Unicorn_, 2016.05.15              --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05        * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)    |
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