XPost: sci.space.policy   
   From: bthorn64@cox.net   
      
   On 5 Feb 2004 13:20:22 -0800, edkyle99@hotmail.com (ed kyle) wrote:   
      
   >The recently-announced $1 billion EELV budget infusion from   
   >the US Air Force means that the per-launch cost is more likely   
   >to be *$250 million*.  The Air Force upped its 2005-2009 EELV   
   >budget to $5 billion ($1 billion per year).  During that period,   
   >an average of perhaps 4 EELV launches are planned each year.   
   >Thus the $250 million per launch number.   
      
   I'm not really sure how you arrive at that figure, since various   
   versions of EELVs are planned for launch throughout that time period.   
   How did you decide which were EELV-Mediums and which were   
   EELV-Heavy's, for example? Obviously, a Delta IV-Medium is not $250   
   million per flight. Delta and Atlas aren't exactly the same cost per   
   flight, either.   
      
   And I think 4 per year is low, anyway.   
      
   >It seems the U.S. got sold a bill of goods on EELV,   
      
   No, I think you're forgetting that EELV was supposed to result in   
   *one* replacement for both Atlas and Titan, not two. The Air Force   
   shot itself in the foot by deciding to fund *both* EELV entries,   
   cutting the potential flight rate for each in half, and driving up   
   costs. Instead of getting one new vehicle to replace two lines of   
   launchers, we... um... got two new vehicles to replace two lines of   
   launchers. And the Air Force is evidently scratching its collective   
   head trying to figure out what went wrong! All this to get "assured   
   access to space" which it had once and abandoned (with Titan and   
   Shuttle). Sheesh!   
      
   >which now   
   >has costs approaching the Titan IV that it replaced.  The EELV   
   >sales pitch sounds more and more like the space shuttle pitch.   
   >Cheaper rockets.  Many launches.  Big savings.   
      
   $250 million was the price for a Titan IV-NUS, if memory serves.   
   Adding a Centaur or IUS increased the cost well past $300 million. No   
   such addition is necessary for Delta IV-Heavy to do the same mission.   
   So we are saving $50 million per launch. The Air Force paid $1   
   Billion, I think, for EELV development, so after 20 launches, we break   
   even. That's five years at 4 per year.   
      
   And both EELVs are far simpler than the 1960s-era Titan III/IV, which   
   should translate into better success record (really... can anyone do   
   worse than Titan IV in that regard?)   
      
   EELV was a very good investment, we just need to get rid of one of   
   them. I think we're stuck with Boeing.   
      
   Brian   
      
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