From: kym@kymhorsell.com   
      
   In sci.environment Dhu on Gate  wrote:   
   > On Thu, 04 Jul 2019 22:44:15 -0700, Norm X wrote:   
   >> We are now in a deep Grand Solar Minimum which makes matters worse.   
   >> Volcanoes and Earthquakes are essentially the same. One Citation: (of   
   > Hogshit.  Go tell the Pompeians.   
   > I'm sure you could have sold them on just an earthquake.   
   > Your "citation" sez _nothing_ like what you claim.   
   > What it says is that there is a weak correlation between   
   > solar flares and tectonic activity here on urth.   
      
   OK. I didn't pick up the paper contradicted the OP's characterisation.   
      
   But to make up for that slip I will ignore the followup and add some details   
   here.   
      
   Using a direct & "smoothing" (aka optimal binning) TS regr we can   
   look again at the number of large eruptions vs solar activity (using sunspots   
   as a proxy and the wiki list of 20th cent eruptions). This time   
   y == number of sig eruptions in each year with x == avg SSN in the year,   
   as before.   
      
      
   MODEL:   
   y = -0.00350263*x + 1.60928   
   beta in -0.00350263 +- 0.00245532  95% CI   
   P(beta<0.000000) = 0.996201   
   alpha in 1.60928 +- 0.232442   
   r2 = 0.31936   
   calculated Spearman corr = -0.435065   
   Critical Spearman = 0.368000 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected   
      
   Bin label                av SSN      av count     model-est av count   
         1933                      5            2      1.59176*   
         1986                11.0792      1.66667      1.57047   
         1985                15.8944      1.33333       1.5536   
         1931                 21.225            2      1.53493*   
         1994                28.9944      1.33333      1.50772   
         1974                32.9694      1.66667       1.4938   
         1973                  38.05          1.5        1.476   
         1904                  41.95            1      1.46234*   
         1984                46.3625          1.5      1.44689   
         1993                   55.9            1      1.41348*   
         1983                 64.205          1.4      1.38439   
         1918                 80.575            1      1.32705*   
         1992                93.4958          1.5       1.2818   
         1988                    100            1      1.25901   
         1968                104.892            1      1.24188   
         1982                115.346          1.5      1.20526*   
         1949                135.658            1      1.13412   
         1990                141.483      1.66667      1.11371*   
         1980                 154.65            1      1.06759   
         1989                157.792            1      1.05659   
         1957                189.858            1     0.944274   
   (Points from the dataset are allocated to bins. Each point is   
   allocated to the bin which is "closest" to the data point   
   in terms of SSN & count in this case. The bin gets labelled randomly   
   from the year of one of the points that got allocated to it.   
   So "1933" means "years like 1993 in that av SSN ~=5 and av count ~-2", &ct).   
      
   Which suggests (together with the prev regr) that   
   a "background" rate (year with minimal solar activity aka SSN around 0   
   as approx now) of eruptions is around 1.6 eruptions per year   
   with an avg VEI around 3.8.   
      
   When solar activity peaks that drops down to less than one per year   
   but slightly larger VEI.   
      
   This pattern then tends to confirm with a robust test what the paper was   
   saying and contradicts what the OP was saying.   
      
   --   
   Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49 Jun 23   
   I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of heat in Anchorage until we   
   figure out what the Hell is going on. twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/s#   
      
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)