From: kym@kymhorsell.com   
      
   Richard Chambers  wrote:   
   > Mr Stephens:  Re the Gompertz curve, which I found interesting.  This curve   
   > starts from near-zero, rapidly accelerates at the start, and then tails of   
   > asymptotically to a steady-state value. You would get this type of curve if   
   > you introduced a single amoeba into an environment with a finite,   
   > unchanging, daily source of nutrient. The population of the amoebas rises   
   > asymptototically to the point where each individual amoeba can only just   
   > feed itself, because od competition from the others.   
   >   
   > The Chief Medical Officer of the UK appeared on BBC television to tell our   
   > anxious nation about the expected rise of the Covid-19 virus now that it is   
   > endemic. His curve (if no action were to be taken, such as quarantine) was   
   > bell-shaped. The number of cases would rise exponentially at the start.   
   > However, after the virus had infected a significant proportion of the   
   > population, it would start to find a shortage of further victims to infect.   
   > For this reason, the rate of infection would reach a peak, then start to   
   > reduce as further victims become increasingly hard to find. Hence the   
   > bell-shape of the graph. He mentioned also the phenomenon of "herd   
   > immunity".   
   ...   
      
   You guys! :)   
      
   There is no danger at this point the epidemic will run out   
   of resources. It's in its boost phase which is statistically   
   identical to an exponential.   
   About 40k people are born per day and new covid19 cases   
   are about 1/2 of that around now and doubling around every 10 days.   
   Throw in complications like reinfection and it will be running   
   in growth mode for months yet. There is even some danger of   
   "pushing down the curve" too much and covid19 will run for 12m   
   and become a permanent feature, effectively doubling the   
   annual global death rate.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)