XPost: alt.global-warming   
      
   Yesterday Vic found another 480+ new cases of covid19, becoming the   
   worst single-day jump since the pandemic started.   
      
   Prem Dan Andrews fronted the daily briefing complaining that the data   
   is showing Victorians are just not taking the disease seriously any   
   more.   
      
   It's been found even with a "stay at home" directive foot traffic in   
   the CBD is up 50% in Lockdown 2.0 compared with Lockdown 1.0.   
   (Apparently there are "sensors" around the city that measure   
   pedestrian traffic).   
      
   Google says cellphone data is showing Victorians are shopping and   
   moving around almost at pre-pandemic levels.   
      
   The Prem said surveys have shown most Victorians do not obey the   
   directives to stay at home while waiting for covid19 test results or   
   even after they have tested +ve.   
      
   Going down to the regional mega-mall a couple days back the population   
   again seems to be out shopping rather than staying at home except for   
   "good reason". During the first lockdown the shoppers had fallen to   
   around 10% pre-covid levels. But this week it seems everyone is out   
   shopping. At the local plaza shelves have again been raided after the   
   state govt directed face coverings were to be worn from Thu (today) by   
   at least 5 mn Melbournians presently under the lockdown. While masks   
   are mostly sold out it also turns out 1/2 the vegetable section in   
   many supermarkets have also been raided. TP is out again and rice and   
   tinned fruit is down to 2 pks per customer.   
      
   The govt "suggested" 3 wks back people should start wearing some kind   
   of mask, esp on public transport or shopping centers. Unf up to now   
   even shop employees have been loath to don them. A spot check at the   
   plaza and the regional mall found only ~10% of people are wearing any   
   kind of face covering.  Most middle-aged men seem to be proud not to   
   be taking any precautions, despite being the number 1 target of the   
   virus. Walking around pushing empty shopping baskets also suggests   
   they may be down at the supermarket to mostly get out of the house,   
   now that most businesses are shut down again.   
      
   Traffic on regional major roads appears to be at the levels before the   
   pandemic, and parking lots most plazas/malls seem totally packed,   
   maybe even moreso than normal.   
      
   TV footage from various virus hotspots around Melbourne seem to show   
   only "people of Asian appearance" seem to be taking masks seriously up   
   to this point.   
      
   Groups that model epidemics normally allow for a certain amount of   
   "fatigue" following the first wave of disease. But Victorians seem to   
   be taking that to extremes.   
      
   Some of it is certainly due to questionable policy decisions.   
   E.g. Mr Andrews complained that people that take covid19 tests are   
   almost never going home to isolate until the result is known. People   
   no doubt balance isolation for an unknown time against the known odds   
   of around 1 chance in 1000 that a tested person turns out to have the   
   disease.  And then there's the little niggle that many testing   
   stations have been setup in supermarket parking lots where people have   
   no doubt come first to shop and maybe see the testing station and drop   
   in there before getting provisions.   
      
   Testing authorities complain that around 1/3 of people that have taken   
   a test are not home to receive the results. I guess we know where they   
   probably are. Authorities also say "a lot" of people that have been   
   tested turn out to provide "bad contact information".   
      
   Every day Vic authorities loudly hope the trends will flatten out, but   
   so far they have continued to turn up, doubling every 5-10 days.  The   
   best we can see at present is at least the smoothed daily case count   
   is not accelerating as fast as a month back.   
      
   Some experts are calling for the govt to move to a higher level of   
   lockdown, but maybe waiting until Mon next week to see if Lockdown   
   2.0 has started to work. Unf with exponential growth we know what that   
   means. The outbreak will just grow that bit extra and be harder and   
   more expensive to bring under control if we wait a few days.   
      
      
   From the JHU data (where Victoria's daily numbers can sometimes be   
   split across days because if Australian time versus JHU's GMT   
   reference timezone) the past few weeks look like:   
      
   Jday	#cases (7d smoothing)   
   180 36   
   181 42   
   182 49   
   183 55   
   184 60   
   185 60   
   186 72				<-- 4 Jul 2020 gmt   
   187 80   
   188 95   
   189 101   
   190 113   
   191 147				<-- 9 Jul 2020 gmt   
   192 170   
   193 180   
   194 186   
   195 200   
   196 215   
   197 236   
   198 252   
   199 256   
   200 271   
   201 282   
   202 295   
   203 327 (i.e. 2x jday 191)	<- 21 Jul 2020 gmt   
      
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   'Who the hell is making these decisions?' 5yo boy is stuck in Thailand,   
   separated from parents   
   ABC North Coast, 22 Jul 2020 05:32Z   
   The parents of a five-year-old Australian boy, who has been stranded in   
   Thailand with his grandmother for the last 5 months, are demanding urgent   
   action to bring their son home.   
      
   Father dies while daughter serving out 14 days in mandatory hotel quarantine   
   ABC News, 22 Jul 2020 04:34Z   
   A Victorian woman who flew home to Perth to be with her dying father was   
   allowed 30 minutes with him before he died last night, and now faces another   
   13 days in mandatory hotel quarantine before she can comfort her mum.   
      
   Senior SA minister refuses to identify taxpayer-funded travel claim expenses   
   ABC Radio Adelaide, 22 Jul 2020 04:34Z   
   In a tense radio interview, a senior South Australian minister repeatedly   
   refuses to identify what expenses justified him claiming tens of thousands   
   of dollars in a taxpayer-funded travel allowance.   
      
   Timber workers blockade Bunnings for ditching Victorian native timber   
   ABC Gippsland, 22 Jul 2020 03:36Z   
   Timber workers are protesting against hardware giant Bunnings' decision to   
   ditch Victorian native timber by blockading one of its stores in eastern   
   Victoria.   
      
   Victoria records 484 cases, Andrews warns of longer lockdown if isolation   
   breaches continue   
   ABC News, 22 Jul 2020 03:36Z   
   Coronavirus cases in Victoria hit a record high with 484 new cases reported   
   in the last 24 hours, as the death toll rises to 44 with the deaths of two   
   men in their 90s.   
      
   A quarter of community sports clubs will go bust without help, according to   
   survey   
   ABC News, 22 Jul 2020 03:38Z   
   A national survey of community sport estimates clubs around Australia have   
   already lost more than $1.5 bn during the COVID-19 crisis, and that a   
   quarter are at risk of going bust.   
      
   Timber workers blockade Bunnings for ditching Victorian native timber   
   ABC Gippsland, 22 Jul 2020 03:38Z   
   Timber workers are protesting against hardware giant Bunnings' decision to   
   ditch Victorian native timber by blockading one of its stores in eastern   
   Victoria.   
      
   Northern Territory set to release 67,500 hectares for farming near WA-NT border   
   ABC/NT Country Hour, 22 Jul 2020 03:35Z   
   The NT is set to unleash its largest-ever land release for agricultural   
      
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