XPost: alt.global-warming   
      
   It was suspected almost from the getgo that being overweight was a   
   major risk factor for complications from covid19.   
      
   Now the research papers are starting to catch up:   
      
     Experts identify obesity as major factor in COVID complications   
     DW News, 03 Sep 2020   
      
     Obesity Increases Your Risk of Dying From COVID-19 by Almost 50 Percent   
     Yahoo Lifestyle, 27 Aug 2020 15:00Z   
     Experts explain why obesity makes it harder to fight off COVID.   
      
     Individuals with obesity and COVID-19: A global perspective on the   
     epidemiology and biological relationships   
     Wiley, 26 Aug 2020 22:59Z   
     Summary The linkage of individuals with obesity and COVID-19 is   
     controversial and lacks systematic reviews. After a systematic search of the   
     Chinese and ...   
      
     Report: Boris Johnson thinks obesity was behind Covid hospitalisation   
     Business Insider, 14 May 2020   
     Boris Johnson, who weighed 17 and a half stone when he was admitted to   
     hospital, reportedly told colleagues: 'It's all right for you thinnies.'   
     [Covid19 risk factor for 1/3 of the UK population].   
      
      
   And now the stats:   
      
   Model:   
   y = 4.45955*exp(0.116954*x)   
   Doubling Rate 5.93   
   beta in 0.116954 +- 0.0202502  90% CI   
   P(beta>0.000000) = 1.000000   
   alpha in 1.49505 +- 0.413123  90% CI   
   r2 = 0.376971   
   calculated Spearman corr = 0.570403   
   Critical value = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected   
      
      
   The model is "pretty sure" obesity rates are connected with covid19   
   fatality rates. Each 6% points of obesity in a population   
   corresponds with a doubling of covid19 death rates.   
      
   The ordering of countries by their obesity rates and covid19 death   
   rates is beyond a 99% coincidence. There is less than 1 chance in 100   
   the relationship could occur only by luck.   
      
   Obesity explains around 40% of the variation in death rates between   
   countries.  Other explanatory factors include size of public (sic)   
   health organisations and age and gender distributions in the   
   population.   
      
   Many countries have a very much higher or very much lower death rate   
   than predicted by their obesity rates. E.g. the UK has a predicted 115   
   per mn death rate corresponding to its almost 1-in-3 obesity levels.   
   But the death rate is actually 640 per mn. This is significantly   
   above prediction indicating "some other factor" must explain why its   
   death rate is so high.   
      
   The US has a predicted death rate of 307 per mn but an actually   
   rate of 578 per mn. While this is a lamentable situation it is   
   statistically not as lamentable as the UK.   
      
   OTOH Australia with a relatively high obesity rate of 30% is   
   predicted to have a 132 per mn death rate from the virus, the real   
   rate is only 31 per mn. This is very much lower than can be   
   explained by the model. Something Australia is doing has   
   "significantly cut" the death rate from covid19.   
      
   Obesity explains why Vietnam and China have such relatively low death   
   rates from the disease while major English-speaking countries have   
   such relatively high rates.   
      
      
   Country			Obesity rate   covid19 deaths  model-predicted   
   			(% population) (per mn cap)   covid19 deaths   
   vietnam                       2.1     0.381679      5.70106**(2s above obs)   
   bangladesh                    3.6      27.3802       6.7943*(-1s)   
   india                         3.9      53.2371      7.03692*   
   nepal                         4.1      9.03927      7.20346   
   japan                         4.3      10.5602      7.37394   
   ethiopia                      4.5      9.28356      7.54846   
   southkorea                    4.7      6.42028       7.7271   
   srilanka                      5.2     0.572355      8.19243**(+2s)   
   madagascar                    5.3      8.78117      8.28881   
   uganda                        5.3      0.94673      8.28881*   
   niger                         5.5      3.33092      8.48498   
   afghanistan                   5.5      42.2236      8.48498*   
   burkinafaso                   5.6      2.88951       8.5848   
   malawi                        5.8      10.3963      8.78797   
   rwanda                        5.8      1.55801      8.78797*   
   chad                          6.1      5.31144      9.10178   
   singapore                     6.1      4.87805      9.10178   
   china                         6.2       3.4373      9.20885   
   philippines                   6.4      35.8131       9.4268*   
   southsudan                    6.6      3.87437       9.6499   
   sudan                         6.6      20.7835       9.6499   
   democraticrepublicofthecongo          6.7      3.04613      9.76342   
   indonesia                     6.9      29.9569      9.99449   
   kenya                         7.1      12.3807       10.231   
   mozambique                    7.2     0.983965      10.3514*   
   centralafricanrepublic          7.5       12.405       10.721   
   guinea                        7.7      4.71152      10.9747   
   comoros                       7.8      8.68322      11.1039   
   equatorialguinea                8      67.8969      11.3666*   
   zambia                        8.1      18.3257      11.5004   
   angola                        8.2      4.63432      11.6357   
   somalia                       8.3      8.84556      11.7725   
   togo                          8.4      4.33991       11.911   
   maldives                      8.6      84.9802      12.1929*   
   mali                          8.6      6.94789      12.1929   
   pakistan                      8.6      32.8064      12.1929   
   sierraleone                   8.7      10.7706      12.3364   
   senegal                       8.8      19.3921      12.4815   
   nigeria                       8.9      5.60464      12.6283   
   guinea-bissau                 9.5       21.967      13.5463   
   benin                         9.6      3.75458      13.7057   
   republicofthecongo            9.6      21.5144      13.7057   
   liberia                       9.9      17.7681      14.1951   
   thailand                       10     0.888732      14.3621**   
   gambia                       10.3       52.591      14.8749   
   ivorycoast                   10.3      5.24892      14.8749   
   mauritius                    10.8      7.91841      15.7707   
   ghana                        10.9      10.1192      15.9563   
   cameroon                     11.4      17.3466      16.9172   
   mauritania                   12.7       43.026      19.6951   
   djibouti                     13.5      66.6667      21.6268   
   brunei                       14.1      7.28332      23.1989   
   gabon                          15      29.4072      25.7739   
   zimbabwe                     15.5      12.9016      27.3261   
   malaysia                     15.6      4.14323      27.6475*   
   eswatini                     16.5      82.9907      30.7164   
   kyrgyzstan                   16.6      175.928      31.0777*   
   lesotho                      16.6      16.3658      31.0777   
   uzbekistan                   16.6      10.6697      31.0777   
   namibia                      17.2      36.9988      33.3369   
   bosniaandherzegovina         17.9      167.738      36.1809*   
   trinidadandtobago            18.6      21.4868      39.2676   
   moldova                      18.9      291.576      40.6698*   
   botswana                     18.9      2.80216      40.6698**   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)