XPost: alt.global-warming   
      
   Poor hillbillies. Apparently scientix has determined that 40% of the   
   population of at least the US operate in a fog where drinking bleach   
   to prevent covid19 makes sense but the relationship between warm   
   weather and summer-like events e.g. wildfires and hurricanes doesn't.   
      
   While nailing down observational trends consistent with the   
   science-based expectations is beyond the ability of hillbillies to   
   comprehend, at least they should understand their rhetoric on climate   
   just doesn't make sense even to someone that didn't take science.   
      
   We all know that summer is associated with certain kinds of natural   
   events and winter is associated with different types of natural events.   
      
   E.g. we can look at the number of N Atl storms by month:   
      
   Month   Num TS      Avg windsp (kt)     Av SST 0N-40N (C)   
   1       23          45.65               23.52   
   2       -           -                   23.05   
   3       -           -                   23.05   
   4       28          33.39               23.45   
   5       95          33.58               24.23   
   6       476         35.70               25.30   
   7       1244        41.64               26.21   
   8       3354        51.04               26.76   
   9       5437        55.50               26.91 <-- max   
   10      2020        51.64               26.47   
   11      708         49.29               25.52   
   12      138         45.65               24.42   
      
   Not much of a surprise that the month with the warmest average sea surf   
   temps in the N Atlantic is also the month with the largest number of   
   observed tropical storms in the N Atl.   
      
   If large chunks of the world are seeing their winters become what   
   their summers used to be and their summers move on to become mega summers   
   then any normal person would expect more of the year would see Nature doing   
   things that used to happen only in "old time summers".   
      
   One of the many phenomena universally expected to increase in numbers   
   and territorial extent are ocean storms.   
      
   E.g. it roughly requires sea surface temps >=26C for a cyclone to   
   form.  Given a long enough time and favorable conditions over warm   
   enough seas a cyclone can develop and become a hurricane.   
      
   Under AGW the area of oceans seeing >=26C in the summer is increasing   
   and the number of days where significant areas are >=26C is also   
   increasing -- i.e. "summer is getting longer".   
      
   We can check ourselves whether this is having any observable effect.   
   The numbers from the North Atlantic are the most historically   
   complete.  We can calculate for each year the Julian day when the   
   first storm was observed and determine the earliest and latest days   
   that storms were seen.   
      
   Is the "start of storm season" getting earlier and earlier?  Is the   
   "end of storm season" getting later and later?   
      
   Here's the data upto 2015:   
      
   Year        Earliest storm  Latest storm   
               (Jday)          (Jday)   
   1851        176             292   
   1852        232             285   
   1853        217             295   
   1854        176             295   
   1855        218             260   
   1856        222             266   
   1857        181             273   
   1858        163             299   
   1859        182             302   
   1860        221             298   
   1861        187             307   
   1862        166             329   
   1863        220             274   
   1864        198             298   
   1865        150             298   
   1866        192             303   
   1867        172             304   
   1868        247             291   
   1869        224             278   
   1870        211             307   
   1871        152             286   
   1872        191             302   
   1873        152             283   
   1874        183             308   
   1875        228             289   
   1876        253             297   
   1877        213             334   
   1878        182             336   
   1879        221             325   
   1880        173             298   
   1881        213             267   
   1882        236             288   
   1883        230             301   
   1884        245             291   
   1885        219             287   
   1886        164             299   
   1887        135             346   
   1888        168             337   
   1889        136             284   
   1890        147             305   
   1891        184             310   
   1892        161             303   
   1893        163             316   
   1894        157             304   
   1895        226             299   
   1896        186             334   
   1897        243             304   
   1898        214             308   
   1899        177             314   
   1900        239             302   
   1901        162             310   
   1902        163             310   
   1903        202             329   
   1904        162             311   
   1905        249             286   
   1906        159             314   
   1907        175             316   
   1908        66              297   
   1909        166             318   
   1910        235             296   
   1911        216             305   
   1912        159             326   
   1913        172             303   
   1914        258             262   
   1915        212             274   
   1916        134             321   
   1917        187             273   
   1918        213             257   
   1919        183             319   
   1920        251             274   
   1921        167             329   
   1922        163             295   
   1923        173             300   
   1924        170             319   
   1925        230             339   
   1926        203             320   
   1927        230             325   
   1928        216             289   
   1929        178             296   
   1930        233             294   
   1931        175             329   
   1932        126             319   
   1933        134             321   
   1934        155             334   
   1935        135             318   
   1936        164             351   
   1937        210             294   
   1938        1               314   
   1939        163             311   
   1940        140             303   
   1941        254             295   
   1942        215             315   
   1943        206             299   
   1944        195             308   
   1945        171             289   
   1946        164             307   
   1947        212             295   
   1948        143             316   
   1949        233             309   
   1950        224             297   
   1951        135             293   
   1952        33              302   
   1953        145             343   
   1954        175             325   
   1955        212             293   
   1956        164             312   
   1957        159             300   
   1958        165             286   
   1959        148             294   
   1960        174             271   
   1961        163             313   
   1962        238             296   
   1963        212             303   
   1964        154             315   
   1965        163             292   
   1966        155             318   
   1967        161             305   
   1968        153             330   
   1969        149             329   
   1970        137             301   
   1971        185             325   
   1972        144             312   
   1973        108             322   
   1974        173             316   
   1975        175             347   
   1976        142             304   
   1977        164             298   
   1978        18              309   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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