XPost: alt.global-warming   
      
   With 1 year of data in the can I'm now dredging throught the patterns   
   in the evolution of the pandemic across countries.   
      
   Many interesting things show up, but some we'd expect. E.g. household   
   size predicts quite well how many cases each country has upto this point.   
   What do you expect? Larger households have lower disease rates.   
      
   Surprised? Shouldnt be. Larger households might mix with each other   
   when they get "really" large like 10 or 20 as they do in some parts of the   
   world then there's little need to go out an eat or see a movie. Less mixing   
   in the population == less spread and in many cases no signs of big pandemic.   
      
   Another thing that might amuse the rabid individualists in the ausdience --   
   higher taxing countries have lower disease rates.   
      
      
   Here's some data:   
      
   MODEL:   
   y = -1.49078*x + 18.3809   
   beta in -1.49078 +- 0.606286  90% CI   
   alpha in 18.3809 +- 9.94422   
   P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999956   
   r2 = 0.13573617   
   calculated Spearman corr = -0.367525   
   Critical Spearman = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected   
      
   				 	  num cases   
   Country			   ind tax rate%  pct change  model-predicted   
   					 in past wk   pct change past wk   
   comoros                         0        59.97      18.3809*(model -1sd cf obs)   
   afghanistan                     2       -15.59      15.3994*   
   cuba                          2.5        47.41       14.654*   
   canada                          5       -10.44       10.927   
   panama                          7         5.58      7.94545   
   japan                           8        21.03      6.45467   
   australia                      10        -8.42      3.47311   
   kazakhstan                     12        10.88     0.491552   
   india                        12.5       -13.62    -0.253838   
   bolivia                        13        67.83    -0.999228**   
   lesotho                        14         1.27     -2.49001   
   nicaragua                      15        19.33     -3.98079   
   pakistan                       16       -17.51     -5.47157   
   jamaica                      16.5       -13.52     -6.21696   
   brazil                         17       -23.47     -6.96235   
   georgia                        18       -31.72     -8.45313   
   niger                          19        -3.38     -9.94391   
   uzbekistan                     20       -16.78     -11.4347   
   argentina                      21         8.32     -12.9255   
   slovenia                       22        -1.05     -14.4163   
   poland                         23       -15.43      -15.907   
   romania                        24       -26.28     -17.3978   
   denmark                        25       -22.36     -18.8886   
   iceland                      25.5        -23.7      -19.634   
   hungary                        27       -40.03     -21.8702   
      
   For each percentage point in indirect taxes the change in   
   covid cases this wk compared with last wk is 1.5 less.   
   I.e. high taxing countries are (perpetually) likely to be seeing   
   a decline in covid cases; low taxing countries are likely to keep   
   seeing rises in covid cases.   
      
      
   --   
   [Cancelled!]   
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   [Waving A Big Fist:]   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)