XPost: alt.global-warming   
      
   The NOAA has updated its "weather fatalities" database to the end of   
   May 2021 (the update is stamped 18 Aug 2021). The fatality data is   
   part of the Storm Events database that is in turn part of NOAA's   
   Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI).   
      
   Already the fatalities for the first 5 m of the year indicate the   
   total for 2021 will exceed 2020 by around 30%.   
      
   The top 10 most fatal years (with no adjustment for technology   
   improvements that make 1 death the equivalent of dozens in e.g. 1950)   
   looks like:   
      
   Year	Weather fatalities   
   2011	1096   
   1999	907   
   2008	736   
   2018	736   
   1998	686   
   2005	604   
   	<-- 2021 ~603?   
   1997	596   
   1996	545   
   2017	543   
   2003	537   
      
   Over the 70+ years of the dataseries about 38.5% of weather fatalities   
   occur in Jan-May. I.e. the rest of 2021 is expected to result in 232 *   
   (100-38.5)/38.5 = 371 more deaths. I.e. the total weather deaths for   
   2021 is expected at this point to be around 603, essentially a tie   
   with 2005 for 5th place.   
      
   Using nominal GDP as a proxy for technology improvement we can   
   calculate a better comparison of years by assuming X deaths in a past   
   year would be a fraction of that now because more money could have   
   been spent on adaptation and response. Adding in also the adjustment   
   for 2021 to take it to the expected full-year count we find the top 10   
   "adjustment" fatalities count looks like:   
      
      
   Year  adj weather fatality count   
   2011 913	<-- superoutbreak year   
   2018 736   
   2021 603	#3   
   2008 582   
   2017 543   
   2015 516   
   1999 470   
   2012 466   
   2016 465   
   2020 460	#10   
      
      
   As in other years, the biggest single cause of weather fatalities in   
   2020-21 has been middle-aged men alone in their vehicle getting   
   getting trapped while crossing a flooded street or intersection.   
      
   Hence NOAA's often-seen warning on Twitter to "turn around and don't drown".   
      
   As part of other work I'm about to start breaking down weather   
   fatalities to allow a certain state govt to prevent at least some of   
   them with targeted advertising. As far as I can see at the moment I   
   am free to share some of the results on this Interweb thing. The main   
   thing I have in mind is a state-by-state breakdown of weather   
   fatalities with an A/I assisted search to see which are the main   
   demographic or other factors that lead to higher fatalities. And of   
   course voting patterns will form one of the "demographic factors".   
      
   --   
   Afghans evacuated by US after being told by Australia to send documents via   
   Kabul post   
   ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 23:38Z   
   The family of an Afghan interpreter who worked with Australian soldiers are   
   evacuated from Kabul by the US Air Force, after struggling to complete   
   Australian visa applications and fearing Taliban reprisals.   
      
   [Time to relax!]   
   Premier flags easing COVID restrictions as NSW nears 6 mn jabs target,   
   records 818 new cases [and another 3 deaths]   
   ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:36Z   
   NSW records 818 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases in the 24 hours to   
   8:00pm yesterday.   
      
     'We have to move forward': Prime Minister fights back against state   
     hesitancy to end COVID-19 lockdowns   
     ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:36Z   
     State leaders who are hesitant to end lockdowns once the country reaches its   
     COVID-19 vaccination targets are warned by the Prime Minister they will do   
     more harm than good.   
      
   A 'soft lockdown' and 400 cases a day -- one expert's plan B if Victoria's   
   restrictions fail   
   ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 23:39Z   
   A leading epidemiologist suggests Victoria could use a "soft lockdown" as a   
   bridging measure to higher vaccination coverage, if the current lockdown   
   fails to crush the outbreak. The state has recorded 71 new COVID-19 cases,   
   49 of whom are linked to known outbreaks.   
      
   Pfizer to be offered to all Australians aged 12 and over on the NDIS   
   ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:35Z   
   Australians aged 12 and over who are on the National Disability Insurance   
   Scheme will be eligible to receive a Pfizer vaccine from this week.   
   [Why not AZ?]   
      
   [Growing!]   
   NZ records 35 new cases, as Delta outbreak climbs to 107   
   ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:41Z   
   New Zealand health authorities announce another 35 cases of community   
   transmission in the country's COVID-19 outbreak.   
      
   Tennessee Flash Floods Kill at Least 22, Dozens Missing   
   New York Magazine, 23 Aug 2021 02:21Z   
   Disastrous flash floods in central Tennessee on Sat devastated the   
   town of Waverly, where authorities expect the death ...   
   [17" of rain recorded some places].   
      
   [New Record!]   
   Tropical Storm Henri makes landfall in coastal Rhode Island town after   
   breaking NYC rain record   
   USA TODAY on MSN.com, 23 Aug 2021 01:58Z   
   Hurricane Henri weakened to a tropical storm but remained a serious threat   
   to the northeastern US It made landfall in ...   
      
     Severe Flooding Threat for Tri-State Continues Into Mon As Henri Hovers   
     Over Tri-State   
     NBC New York, 23 Aug 2021 02:12Z   
     The worst of the winds may have missed the tri-state, but the extended heavy   
     rain is hitting the region hard - and will ...   
      
     Several Brooklyn streets submerged under water due to Tropical Storm Henri   
     News 12 New Jersey, 23 Aug 2021 01:33Z   
     Several streets are now under water in Brooklyn as the rain continues from   
     Tropical Storm Henri. Commuters should avoid ...   
      
   Richard managed to forge a COVID vaccine certificate. It took him 10 minutes   
   ABC Science, 22 Aug 2021 19:41Z   
   Near-perfect forgeries of the federal govt's COVID-19 vaccine digital   
   certificate can be made in 10 minutes using free software, a member of the   
   public has discovered.   
      
   [Spin!]   
   'Chicken Little is not required at times like this': Officials sought to   
   downplay Fraser Island bushfire, documents reveal   
   ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 19:40Z   
   When a bushfire raged through Fraser Island (K'gari) in 2020, a high-ranking   
   Queensland Parks bureaucrat downplayed messages to the public and was   
   worried visitors wouldn't make Christmas bookings, internal emails reveal.   
      
   'Gives our farmers confidence': Working visa for foreigners to begin next month   
   ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 21:39Z   
   The visa, which could provide a pathway to permanent residency, had been   
   opposed by some Liberals, so its confirmation is considered a major victory   
   for the Nationals in support of farming, fisheries, forestry and meat   
   processing.   
      
   BREAKING (23 Aug): The DFAT has reportedly reversed its decision and will   
   offer visas to Afghans who guarded the AUS embassy in Kabul for the   
   past 20y. An ABC investigation found about 100 guards who had applied   
   for visas to escape Taliban retribution were sent a form letter saying   
   they were not eligible for visas under Australia's program to assist   
   nationals that were former employees and they should seek assistance from   
   migration agents.  After the story aired on TV last night the federal   
   govt was quick to reverse the decision and will now give the guards asylum.   
   The problem will now be how to get out of the country as the Taliban take   
   over the reigns of power.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)